What if you invested monthly in a Broad-commodities ETF (DBC) for 15 years?
See how a 15-year monthly investment into DBC, which broadly holds futures on oil, natural gas, metals, and agriculture, would have looked. It is cited as an inflation hedge, but there were also long stretches of weak performance.
Investment conditions
Asset · Broad-commodities ETF (DBC)
Method · Recurring monthly investment
Period · 2011-07-01 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $222 / month
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-32.5%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
98months
Months in loss: 108
Recovery period
8months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $40,222 → Final value $63,311 (+57.4%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -32.5%
Why this period and asset
DBC broadly holds futures contracts across commodities such as oil, natural gas, industrial metals, and agriculture. Commodities tend to rise when prices climb, so they are cited as an inflation hedge, but during long weak stretches like 2011-2020 they performed poorly. Because it is run with futures, rolling contracts at expiry incurs a 'roll cost,' so ETF returns can lag even when the spot commodity price rises. During the 2022 inflation surge it did show strength.
Interpreting the result
Commodities pay no interest or dividend, and their gains and losses hinge on price and futures structure. Check the maximum drawdown, underwater period, and recovery time on the results screen to see their potential to underperform for a long time. Some rely on them for defense during inflation, but in periods of stable prices they can lag for years. Monthly investing spreads out timing but does not remove prolonged underperformance.
Caveats & limits
Commodity futures ETFs may not fully track spot price gains because of roll cost, and they pay no interest or dividend. As a foreign asset, exchange rates affect won-denominated returns, and expense ratios, trading costs, and taxes lower performance. Past performance does not guarantee the future, and this page does not recommend buying.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-23
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Cierre ajustado (refleja dividendos y desdoblamientos de acciones)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Do commodities always rise during inflation?
Commodities tend to rise during inflation surges, but not always. If supply increases or demand falls, they can drop regardless of inflation, so it cannot be assumed that the inflation hedge always works.
What is roll cost?
Futures have expiries, so contracts must periodically be rolled into the next month. If the new contract is more expensive, the difference becomes a cost called roll cost. Because of this, ETF returns can lag even when spot prices rise.
Do commodities trend upward if I invest for a long time?
It is hard to assume long-term upward drift for commodities the way one might for stocks. There have been long weak stretches, so you must check the underwater period and recovery time on the results screen.
Related scenarios
📋 Los resultados se basan en datos históricos; las rentabilidades pasadas no garantizan rentabilidades futuras.
📋 Este servicio se ofrece con fines educativos para ayudarte a entender la inversión, no como asesoramiento de inversión.