What if you bought the US tech-sector ETF at the late-2021 peak?
This uses real data to show what would have happened if you had invested a lump sum of ₩10M in the technology-sector ETF (XLK) on December 27, 2021, as U.S. stocks hit record highs. The drawdown of the 2022 bear market that began right after is the main story.
⚠️ Know the risk first
Right after entry, XLK fell far from its peak in the 2022 bear market. The final return only holds if you held through that drawdown without selling.
What happened that day
On December 27, 2021, the S&P 500 hit an all-time high of about 4,791 in its final rally of the year. The tech-heavy sector ETF (XLK) was near its peak too, but the 2022 inflation and rate-hike bear market began right after.
Why this date
The record-high close is used as a symbolic top-of-market buy point, computing 'what if you bought when everything looked best' at that day's close.
Investment conditions
Asset · XLK (US technology-sector ETF) · lump-sum near the late-2021 peak, then held long-term
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 2021-12-27 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Buy and final prices are shown in the asset's local currency (US & crypto $, Japan ¥, Korea ₩). Total invested and final value are in Korean won (₩).
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-33.6%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
19months
Months in loss: 21
Recovery period
9months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $16,104 (+117.4%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -33.6%
Why this period and asset
December 27, 2021 was when the S&P 500 hit record levels in its final rally of the year. XLK, heavy in mega-cap tech like Apple and Microsoft, was near its peak too. But within days, in early 2022, a tech-led bear market began on inflation and rate-hike fears, and XLK fell sharply throughout 2022. It is a textbook case of buying 'when everything looked best.'
Interpreting the result
The focus here is not the final return but 'how deep and how long you were underwater after buying near the top.' Review the maximum drawdown and loss periods first. In the 2022 bear market, XLK fell far from its peak, and although it later recovered on the AI boom, you had to endure a long stretch with your principal well below water. Had you spread the money monthly instead of all at once, you could have bought cheaper during the decline — compare via the 'lump-sum vs monthly' link.
Caveats & limits
As a top-of-market purchase, the early loss period is central to this event. Emphasizing only the recovery hides the condition that you 'held a deep drawdown without selling.' XLK is a sector ETF — more diversified than a single stock, but concentrated in one sector and thus more volatile than the whole market. Figures use adjusted close and exclude exchange rates, fees, and taxes; always review the maximum drawdown and loss periods. Past results do not guarantee the future.
Event fact sources
- Yahoo Finance — S&P 500 closes at all-time high (2021-12-27)
- Wikipedia — Closing milestones of the S&P 500
Requested date vs actual trading date
If the event date is a holiday, the fill uses the next trading day's close. The 'effective trading date' below is the date actually used.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-28
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Why use December 27, 2021 as the buy date?
That day the S&P 500 hit record levels (about 4,791) in its final rally of the year, and tech-heavy XLK was near its peak. It best captures the idea of 'buying at the top when everything looked best.'
How much did it fall right after buying?
From early 2022, a tech bear market on inflation and rate-hike fears sent XLK sharply below its peak. See that stretch in the maximum drawdown and loss-period metrics below. The final return rests on having endured that drawdown.
But it recovered by now, so isn't it fine?
Whether it recovers is only known in hindsight. Consider whether you could actually have endured the long stretch with your principal deep underwater without selling. This page recommends no product.
Are FX and taxes reflected?
No. Exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax. In real U.S. ETF investing, FX and taxes additionally affect results.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.