What if you bought ARKK (Cathie Wood's innovation ETF) at its all-time high?
This uses real data to show what would have happened if you had invested a lump sum in ARKK — the symbol of the COVID growth-stock craze — on February 16, 2021, its all-time high. We honestly include the 70%-plus crash that followed the peak.
⚠️ Know the risk first
After the peak, ARKK crashed more than 70% from its high and stayed down for a long time. Whatever the final result, see in the maximum drawdown that you had to endure a 70%-plus loss period in between.
What happened that day
Around February 16, 2021, Cathie Wood's innovation ETF ARKK hit its all-time high. A symbol of post-COVID growth euphoria, it then crashed more than 70% from that peak amid rate-hike fears and a growth-stock correction.
Why this date
The buy date is ARKK's all-time high, computing directly the worst-timing case of 'buying at the most hyped and most expensive moment.'
Investment conditions
Asset · ARKK (innovation ETF) · lump-sum at the all-time high, then held
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 2021-02-16 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Buy and final prices are shown in the asset's local currency (US & crypto $, Japan ¥, Korea ₩). Total invested and final value are in Korean won (₩).
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-80.7%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
66months
Months in loss: 66
Recovery period
0months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $3,974 (-46.4%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -80.7%
Why this period and asset
Around February 16, 2021, ARKK, the disruptive-innovation ETF run by Cathie Wood, hit its all-time high (roughly $160 intraday). Amid post-COVID liquidity and growth-stock euphoria, ARKK drew explosive popularity as 'the fund that buys the future.' But right after this peak, rate-hike fears and a growth-stock correction combined to crash ARKK more than 70% from its high, and it stayed down for a long time.
Interpreting the result
This is a classic case showing that the moment of peak popularity was actually the most dangerous buying point. Check the maximum drawdown below to see how far the holding shrank after buying the top. Even if the final value recovered, you should ask whether you could have endured the 70%-plus loss period in between. Investing gradually each month instead of dumping everything at the top would have let you accumulate at lower prices during the decline — see the 'lump-sum vs monthly' comparison.
Caveats & limits
Buying the top of a theme/innovation ETF is this page's central warning. Peak popularity often coincides with peak price, and the subsequent correction can be very deep and long. ARKK is an active ETF concentrated in a specific theme rather than a broad index, so its volatility is high. Figures use adjusted close and exclude exchange rates, fees, and taxes; always review the maximum drawdown and loss periods.
Event fact sources
- Seeking Alpha, ARKK peak/decline coverage (2021-2022)
- Bloomberg, Cathie Wood ARKK 2021 peak coverage
Requested date vs actual trading date
If the event date is a holiday, the fill uses the next trading day's close. The 'effective trading date' below is the date actually used.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-28
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
How risky is buying at the all-time high?
ARKK crashed more than 70% from its high after the February 2021 peak. That means 10 million won would have shrunk to the 3-million range at one point. Check the maximum drawdown below for that depth. It shows why buying at peak popularity is dangerous.
Why use February 16, 2021 as the buy date?
That is when ARKK hit its all-time high. It best captures the worst-timing assumption of 'buying at the most hyped and most expensive moment.'
It recovered eventually, so can't I just hold?
ARKK recovered partly, but you had to endure a 70%-plus loss for years along the way. Most people couldn't bear that fear and sold at a locked-in loss. Also, not every theme ETF recovers. This page recommends no product.
Are FX and taxes reflected?
No. Exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax. This only shows historical data and does not guarantee the future.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.