What if you bought TQQQ (3x leveraged Nasdaq) at its 2021 peak?
This uses real data to show what would have happened if you had invested a lump sum in TQQQ — a leveraged ETF tracking 3x the Nasdaq-100's daily return — on November 19, 2021, its 2021 peak. We honestly examine the extreme risk of buying leverage at the top.
⚠️ Know the risk first
Leveraged ETFs are designed for 3x daily, so long-term holding diverges greatly from 3x the index due to volatility decay. Combined with top-buying, an 80%-plus loss is possible in this high-risk product.
What happened that day
On November 19, 2021, TQQQ — a leveraged ETF tracking 3x the daily Nasdaq-100 — hit its high for the year. In the 2022 bear market, 3x declines and volatility decay combined to crash it more than 80% from its peak.
Why this date
The buy date is TQQQ's 2021 peak, computing directly the worst-timing case of 'buying leverage at its most expensive top.'
Investment conditions
Asset · TQQQ (3x leveraged Nasdaq-100 ETF) · lump-sum at the 2021 peak, then held
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 2021-11-19 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Buy and final prices are shown in the asset's local currency (US & crypto $, Japan ¥, Korea ₩). Total invested and final value are in Korean won (₩).
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-81.7%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
45months
Months in loss: 45
Recovery period
25months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $13,596 (+83.5%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -81.7%
Why this period and asset
November 19, 2021 was the day TQQQ hit its high for the year. TQQQ is a leveraged ETF that tracks 3x the Nasdaq-100's 'daily' return — it soars in bull markets but falls 3x in downturns. Buying near the end of the 2021 growth rally, just before rate hikes, and then passing straight through the 2022 bear market, TQQQ crashed more than 80% from its high.
Interpreting the result
This is a case where two leverage risks overlap. First, buying at the worst possible timing — the top. Second, in a downturn it falls 3x, and when swings repeat, 'volatility decay' means that even when the index returns to par, the leveraged ETF stays lower, accumulating structural losses. Check the 80%-plus loss in the maximum drawdown below. Even when the Nasdaq recovers, TQQQ's recovery can be far slower or incomplete. The key point is that leverage is not a buy-and-hold product.
Caveats & limits
Leveraged ETFs are designed to track 3x on a 'daily' basis, so long-term holding diverges greatly from 3x the index due to volatility decay. When top-buying and leverage combine, losses become extreme. This is a high-risk product where you can lose most of your principal. Figures use adjusted close and exclude exchange rates, fees, and taxes; always review the maximum drawdown and loss periods.
Event fact sources
- ProShares — TQQQ fund page (leverage disclosure)
- Reuters, leveraged ETF 2022 selloff coverage
Requested date vs actual trading date
If the event date is a holiday, the fill uses the next trading day's close. The 'effective trading date' below is the date actually used.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-28
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
With 3x leverage, does a recovered index mean a 3x recovery?
No. Leverage is 3x the 'daily' return only; over many days, swings create 'volatility decay.' Even when the index returns to par, the leveraged ETF can stay lower. That is the structural trap of leverage.
How far did it fall from the top?
Bought at the November 2021 peak and held through the 2022 bear market, TQQQ crashed more than 80% from its high. 10 million won would have shrunk below 2 million at one point. Check the maximum drawdown below.
Why use November 19, 2021 as the buy date?
It is TQQQ's 2021 peak. It best captures the worst-timing assumption of 'buying leverage at its most expensive top.'
Are FX and taxes reflected?
No. Exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax. This page only shows historical data and recommends no product; leveraged products are especially high-risk.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.