What if you bought the Nasdaq at the 2022 bear-market bottom?
This uses real data to show what would have happened if you had made a lump-sum investment in the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) on October 13, 2022 — the day it bottomed during the inflation-and-rate-hike selloff. Remember, though, that a 'bottom' is only knowable after the fact.
⚠️ Know the risk first
A bottom is only knowable after the fact. At the time, fear of further falls dominated, and it would have been very hard for a real investor to buy on this exact day. This result is an idealized assumption that pinpoints the bottom in hindsight.
What happened that day
On October 13, 2022, a hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI print sent the Nasdaq-100 plunging intraday, but it rebounded from that spot to mark the year's bear-market bottom. It came amid the worst inflation in 40 years and the Fed's rapid rate hikes weighing on tech stocks.
Why this date
This is the day the Nasdaq-100 hit its intraday low and rebounded, later confirmed as the bear-market bottom. It best captures the question 'what if you bought at the scariest moment.'
Investment conditions
Asset · QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) · lump-sum at the 2022 bear-market low, then held
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 2022-10-13 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Buy and final prices are shown in the asset's local currency (US & crypto $, Japan ¥, Korea ₩). Total invested and final value are in Korean won (₩).
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-22.8%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
1months
Months in loss: 1
Recovery period
3months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $20,439 (+175.9%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -22.8%
Why this period and asset
October 13, 2022 was the day the Nasdaq-100, crushed by the worst inflation in 40 years and the Fed's rapid rate hikes, hit its low for the year. A hotter-than-expected CPI print that morning sent the index sharply lower intraday, but it then rebounded violently from that very point, marking the bottom of the bear market. At the time no one knew it was the bottom, and the market was full of fear that stocks 'had further to fall.' From 2023 onward, the AI boom drove tech stocks to a strong recovery.
Interpreting the result
In hindsight, this becomes the story that 'the scariest moment was the best buying point.' The final return below can look high, but this is an idealized assumption that pinpoints the exact bottom with hindsight. In reality no one can know in advance where the bottom is, and most people either couldn't bring themselves to buy amid the fear or had already sold. The lesson here is not 'nail the bottom' but why investing gradually each month is a realistic alternative to trying to time it in one shot — compare with the 'lump-sum vs monthly' link below.
Caveats & limits
Buying the bottom is a result knowable only after the fact. This page does not mean 'just buy at the bottom'; it shows that the bottom is only visible once it has passed. As an index ETF, QQQ carries less survivorship bias than a single stock, but remember that picking one specific day is itself a hindsight choice. Figures use adjusted close and exclude exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes; always review the maximum drawdown and loss periods. This is past data only and does not guarantee the future.
Event fact sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — CPI report (2022-10-13)
- Reuters, Nasdaq intraday reversal coverage (2022-10-13)
Requested date vs actual trading date
If the event date is a market holiday, the fill uses the next trading day's close. The 'effective trading date' below is the date actually used in the calculation.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-28
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Was that really the 2022 Nasdaq bottom?
Yes. October 13, 2022 was the day the Nasdaq-100 hit its intraday low for the year: it plunged right after a hot CPI print and then rebounded from that spot, marking the bear-market bottom. But that fact was only confirmed long after the day itself.
So can't I just aim to buy the bottom?
No — this page's point is the opposite. No one knew it was the bottom, and the market was full of fear that stocks would fall further. Because a bottom is only visible in hindsight, investing gradually each month is a more realistic alternative than trying to time it.
Were there loss periods after buying?
Since that day was the bottom itself, there was no major decline afterward, but the recovery still had swings. Check the maximum drawdown metric below for the drop endured during the holding period. What matters more is that a real investor would have found it very hard to buy at this exact low.
Are exchange rates and taxes reflected?
No. Exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax. In real U.S.-ETF investing, USD/KRW movements and taxes would additionally affect your results.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.