What if you bought the semiconductor ETF (SMH) at the 2022 chip bottom?
This uses real data to show what would have happened if you had invested a lump sum in the semiconductor ETF SMH around October 2022 — when the chip index bottomed amid rate hikes and a downcycle. We include the premise that 'a bottom is knowable only in hindsight.'
⚠️ Know the risk first
A bottom is only knowable after the fact. At the time, 'chip winter' pessimism dominated, and the AI boom was not a foretold future. This result is an idealized assumption that pinpoints the bottom in hindsight.
What happened that day
Around October 2022, the chip index hit its low for the year as rate hikes and a semiconductor downcycle overlapped. 'Chip winter' pessimism was widespread, but the 2023 AI boom drove a strong rebound afterward.
Why this date
The buy date is mid-October 2022, when the chip index formed its low, computing 'what if you bought the index at the most pessimistic moment.' We use October 13, the broad bear-market reversal day, as the reference.
Investment conditions
Asset · SMH (semiconductor ETF) · lump-sum near the 2022 bear-market low, then held
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 2022-10-13 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Buy and final prices are shown in the asset's local currency (US & crypto $, Japan ¥, Korea ₩). Total invested and final value are in Korean won (₩).
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-35.7%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
0months
Months in loss: 0
Recovery period
2months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $52,102 (+603.4%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -35.7%
Why this period and asset
Around October 2022, the chip index hit its low for the year as the worst inflation in 40 years, rate hikes, and a semiconductor downcycle overlapped. Pessimism that 'the chip winter would drag on' was widespread. But in 2023, sparked by ChatGPT, the AI boom exploded, and the chip index — holding Nvidia, TSMC, and others — rebounded strongly. SMH is an index ETF holding the whole semiconductor industry, not a single stock.
Interpreting the result
In hindsight, the most pessimistic period became a good buying point — but that is a story visible only after the fact. The final return below can be high, yet at the time no one knew that day was the bottom, and the 'AI boom' was not a foretold future. Holding an index ETF instead of a single chip stock means that even if one company collapses, you can ride the recovery of the whole industry — a benefit of index investing. Still, remember that picking one specific day is itself a hindsight choice.
Caveats & limits
Buying the bottom is knowable only after the fact. This page does not mean 'just buy at the chip bottom'; it shows the bottom is only visible once passed. As an index ETF, SMH carries less survivorship bias than a single stock, but semiconductors are cyclical and volatile. Figures use adjusted close and exclude exchange rates, fees, and taxes; always review the maximum drawdown and loss periods.
Event fact sources
- Reuters, semiconductor sector 2022 selloff coverage
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — CPI report (2022-10-13)
Requested date vs actual trading date
If the event date is a holiday, the fill uses the next trading day's close. The 'effective trading date' below is the date actually used.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-28
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Was that really the chip bottom?
Around October 2022, the chip index formed its low for the year and then rebounded strongly on the 2023 AI boom. But that fact was confirmed only later; at the time, 'chip winter' pessimism dominated.
How is buying SMH different from a single chip stock?
SMH is an index ETF holding many semiconductor firms. Even if one collapses, you can ride the industry's recovery, so it carries less survivorship bias than a single stock. Still, the chip industry itself is cyclical, so volatility remains high.
So can't I just aim to buy the bottom?
No. No one knew it was the bottom, and the market was full of pessimism. Because a bottom is only visible in hindsight, investing gradually each month is more realistic than trying to time it.
Are FX and taxes reflected?
No. Exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax. This only shows historical data and does not guarantee the future.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.