What if you bought the S&P 500 at the pre-2022-selloff peak?
This uses real data to show what would have happened if you had invested a lump sum in an S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on January 3, 2022 — the day the index hit its then-all-time high just before the inflation/rate-hike selloff — and held until now. We honestly examine this relatively recent peak-buying case.
⚠️ Know the risk first
Right after entry the index corrected about -25%, and it took roughly two years to reclaim the high. The drawdown is smaller than 2008 or 2000, but the final return only holds if you held through that loss period without selling.
What happened that day
On January 3, 2022, the S&P 500 hit a then-all-time high around 4,796. As four-decade-high inflation, aggressive Fed rate hikes, and the Ukraine war piled on, it corrected about -25% from its peak through that October, and the high was reclaimed only in early 2024, about two years later.
Why this date
The buy date is the index's then-all-time high right before the inflation/rate-hike selloff, computing the recent case 'what if you bought at the peak just before a bear market' directly.
Investment conditions
Asset · S&P 500 ETF (SPY) · lump-sum at the 2022 peak, then held long-term
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 2022-01-03 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Buy and final prices are shown in the asset's local currency (US & crypto $, Japan ¥, Korea ₩). Total invested and final value are in Korean won (₩).
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-24.5%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
23months
Months in loss: 23
Recovery period
10months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $12,290 (+65.9%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -24.5%
Why this period and asset
January 3, 2022 is the day the S&P 500 hit a then-all-time high around 4,796. As four-decade-high inflation, the Fed's aggressive rate hikes, and the Ukraine war piled on, the index corrected about -25% from its peak through October that year. That high was reclaimed only in early 2024, about two years later. The drawdown is smaller than in the 2008 or 2000 cases, but it shows that 'even recently, peak buying hurts.'
Interpreting the result
This case shows 'what if you bought at the relatively recent early-2022 peak.' If you bought at the peak and held without selling, the final value below reflects the later recovery and re-rally. But it rests on having endured roughly a year of decline right after entry and about a two-year path back to breakeven. Compared with the earlier financial-crisis and dot-com cases the drawdown and recovery are shorter, but confirm alongside the maximum drawdown and loss periods that the pain of peak buying was real even recently.
Caveats & limits
The roughly -25% correction and about two-year path to breakeven right after entry are central to this event. The drawdown is smaller than in 2008 or 2000, but emphasizing only the final return hides this loss period. As an index ETF survivorship bias is small, but peak-buying risk exists for indexes too. Figures use adjusted close and exclude exchange rates, fees, and taxes; always review the maximum drawdown and loss periods.
Event fact sources
- Schwab — Back in Black: S&P 500 Hits All-Time High (prior record 4,796.56 on 2022-01-03)
- CNBC — S&P 500 rallies to all-time high, surpassing previous record set in 2022 (2024-01-18)
Requested date vs actual trading date
If the event date is a market holiday, the fill uses the next trading day's close. The 'effective trading date' below is the date actually used in the calculation.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-28
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
The drawdown was smaller this time — why warn?
The drawdown (about -25%) was smaller than 2008 (-57%) or 2000 (-78%), but it still fell for about a year after entry and took roughly two years to get back to breakeven. Remember that 'peak buying hurts even recently,' and that each crisis has a different drawdown and recovery.
Why use January 3, 2022 as the buy date?
That is the day the S&P 500 hit a then-all-time high around 4,796. The inflation/rate-hike selloff began right after, so it best captures the recent case of 'buying at the peak just before a bear market.'
How long did it take to reclaim the high?
The January 2022 high was reclaimed only in early 2024, about two years later, with a maximum drawdown of about -25% in between. Check the maximum drawdown and loss-period metrics below.
Are FX and taxes reflected?
No. Exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax. This page only shows historical data and recommends no specific product.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.