What if you buried $ in the S&P 500 the day the first-ever ETF (SPY) launched?
This uses real data to show what would have happened if you had invested a lump sum on the first trading day of SPY, the world's first ETF, in early 1993 and left it untouched for over 30 years. We examine the power of 'burying it for a very long time' alongside the big crises in between.
⚠️ Know the risk first
The 30-plus-year holding period includes several big declines — the dot-com collapse, the 2008 crisis, and the COVID crash. The ultra-long-term gain only holds if you held through all of them without selling. Always review the maximum drawdown metric below.
What happened that day
SPY launched in the U.S. on January 22, 1993 as the world's first ETF, the symbolic start of the 'ETF era' that popularized easy, diversified index investing. This service's SPY data begins right after, on January 29, 1993.
Why this date
Right after SPY's launch (1993-01-22), we use the earliest SPY daily-data date this service holds — January 29, 1993 — as the buy date to compute 'buried at the dawn of the ETF era.'
Investment conditions
Asset · S&P 500 ETF (SPY) · lump-sum near inception, held 30+ years ultra-long-term
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 1993-01-29 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Buy and final prices are shown in the asset's local currency (US & crypto $, Japan ¥, Korea ₩). Total invested and final value are in Korean won (₩).
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-55.2%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
0months
Months in loss: 0
Recovery period
37months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $229,092 (+2992.7%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -55.2%
Why this period and asset
SPY launched in the U.S. on January 22, 1993 as the world's first ETF, and this service's SPY data begins right after, on January 29, 1993. That day marks the symbolic start of the 'ETF era.' Over the following 30-plus years, this investment passed through several major crises — the dot-com collapse (2000–2002), the global financial crisis (2008), and the COVID crash (2020).
Interpreting the result
This is an ultra-long-term case of 'buying at the dawn of the ETF and burying it for life.' If you never sold for over 30 years, the final value and annualized return (XIRR) below show the power of compounding. But this ultra-long journey included several -30% to -50% crashes, and the result rests on having held through each of those crises without selling. The maximum drawdown metric below shows the 'single scariest drop' — remember that even in ultra-long-term investing, the fear in between was real.
Caveats & limits
However glamorous the ultra-long-term result looks, it rests on having held through several big crashes (dot-com, financial crisis, COVID) without selling. As an index ETF, single-stock-style survivorship bias is small, but 'holding for 30 years' is not as easy as it sounds. Figures use adjusted close and exclude exchange rates, fees, and taxes; always review the maximum drawdown and loss periods.
Event fact sources
- State Street SPDR — SPY: The original S&P 500 ETF (inception 1993-01-22)
- Markets Media — The Story of the First US ETF
Requested date vs actual trading date
Because the requested (symbolic launch) date may differ from the actual data start, the fill uses the earliest available trading day's close. The 'effective trading date' below is the date actually used.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-28
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Why use January 29, 1993 as the buy date?
SPY launched January 22, 1993 as the world's first ETF, and the reliable daily SPY data this service uses begins right after, on January 29, 1993. We chose this earliest available date to compute 'bought at the dawn of the ETF era' precisely.
Did it just keep rising for 30 years?
No. In between there were several big declines — the dot-com collapse (2000–2002), the financial crisis (2008), and the COVID crash (2020). The maximum drawdown metric below shows the 'single largest' of those. The ultra-long-term gain is the result of holding through all of them without selling.
Does this mean I should buy SPY now?
No. This page only shows one product's ultra-long-term past path in data and recommends no product. Past long-term performance does not guarantee the future.
Are exchange rates and taxes reflected?
No. Exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax. In real U.S.-product investing, USD/KRW movements and taxes would additionally affect your results.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.