What if you invested monthly in a Semiconductor ETF (SMH) for 15 years?
This scenario invests a fixed USD amount every month in a U.S. semiconductor ETF (SMH) from July 2011 to July 2026 — 15 years of dollar-cost averaging. It compares the extreme swings and drawdowns of the chip cycle and the AI boom against the S&P 500.
Investment conditions
Asset · Semiconductor ETF (SMH)
Method · Recurring monthly investment
Period · 2011-07-01 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $222 / month
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-44.3%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
3months
Months in loss: 6
Recovery period
8months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $40,222 → Final value $683,194 (+1598.5%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -44.3%
Why this period and asset
SMH concentrates on chip designers and manufacturers such as Nvidia and TSMC. Semiconductors run a pronounced boom-bust 'chip cycle' as supply and demand swing. The 2011-2026 window includes mobile and data-center demand, the 2022 drawdown, and a later AI boom that lifted chip stocks to extremes.
Interpreting the result
Semiconductors offer high growth but extreme volatility — a classic high-beta sector. Fifteen years of monthly buying spreads entry points, yet in a downturn of the chip cycle the maximum drawdown can be very deep. Deeper drawdowns mean longer loss and recovery periods. Versus the S&P 500 it can lead sharply in upcycles and AI booms and fall far behind in slowdowns — an extreme spread.
Caveats & limits
Chips are sensitive to cycles, inventory, and sudden demand shifts, so drawdowns can be abrupt, and heavy weighting in a few names adds concentration risk. Recent surges are no guarantee of continuation. Expense ratios, commissions, taxes, and currency moves affect results, and this scenario does not recommend buying semiconductors.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-23
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: 复权收盘价(已反映股息与拆股)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
With the AI boom, will chips keep rising?
There is no certainty. Semiconductors are cyclical, and rallies have repeatedly been followed by deep corrections. Future prices are not something we predict.
Why is the semiconductor ETF's drawdown so large?
It is sensitive to demand and inventory cycles and is heavily weighted in a few large names, so drawdowns can turn extreme in corrections.
Is monthly investing safe here?
It spreads entry points, but it cannot remove the sector's deep drawdowns and long recovery periods.
Related scenarios
📋 结果基于历史数据计算,过去的收益不代表未来的收益。
📋 本服务旨在帮助理解投资、供教育之用,并非投资建议。