What if you invested monthly in a Long-term Treasury ETF (TLT) for 15 years?
See what a 15-year monthly investment plan into TLT, which holds long-dated U.S. Treasury bonds, would have looked like using real price data. Even 'safe' government bonds can suffer large drawdowns when interest rates move.
Investment conditions
Asset · Long-term Treasury ETF (TLT)
Method · Recurring monthly investment
Period · 2011-07-01 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $222 / month
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-34.8%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
47months
Months in loss: 57
Recovery period
0months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $40,222 → Final value $37,215 (-7.5%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -34.8%
Why this period and asset
TLT holds U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 20 years or more. Government bonds are often called the 'safest' asset, but the longer the maturity, the more their prices swing with changes in interest rates. From 2011 to 2020, low rates and quantitative easing supported long-bond prices, but in 2022 the Federal Reserve's rapid rate hikes drove long-term Treasury prices sharply lower. Because bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, when rates rise quickly, the prices of previously issued low-rate bonds fall.
Interpreting the result
This scenario shows plainly that even 'safe' assets can draw down. On the results screen, be sure to check the maximum drawdown (how far it fell from its peak), the length of the underwater period, and the recovery time. Long-term Treasuries often move differently from stocks, which some investors rely on for diversification, but during sharp rate spikes they can fall alongside stocks. Monthly investing buys more units when prices are lower, but that does not eliminate losses.
Caveats & limits
Long-term Treasury ETFs are highly sensitive to interest-rate direction and move more than shorter-maturity bonds. As a foreign asset, USD/KRW exchange-rate changes affect returns in won terms, and the ETF's expense ratio, taxes, and trading costs also erode real performance. Taxes on distributions (interest) should be considered too. Past behavior does not guarantee future results, and this page does not recommend buying any specific asset.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-23
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: 复权收盘价(已反映股息与拆股)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
If Treasuries are safe, why can they lose money?
The credit (default) risk of Treasuries is low, but their market price changes with interest rates. When rates rise, previously issued low-rate bonds become less attractive and their prices fall. Longer-maturity bonds are more sensitive, so the maximum drawdown on the results screen can be quite large.
Does TLT move opposite to stocks?
It has often moved differently from stocks, providing diversification, but not always. In periods like 2022, when inflation and rates spiked, stocks and bonds fell together. The correlation shifts over time and cannot be taken for granted.
Can monthly investing avoid bond losses?
Dollar-cost averaging spreads out your purchase timing and smooths your average cost, but it does not remove losses. During declines your balance can fall below what you put in, so it is important to review the underwater period and recovery time together.
Related scenarios
📋 结果基于历史数据计算,过去的收益不代表未来的收益。
📋 本服务旨在帮助理解投资、供教育之用,并非投资建议。