What if you invested monthly in an innovation ETF (ARKK) for 10 years?
This looks at investing a fixed amount every month for 10 years into an active theme ETF concentrated in disruptive-innovation companies. It is a signature high-volatility theme that saw both extreme surges and crashes.
Investment conditions
Asset · Innovation ETF (ARKK)
Method · Recurring monthly investment
Period · 2016-07-01 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $222 / month
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-76.9%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
4months
Months in loss: 12
Recovery period
33months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $26,889 → Final value $49,928 (+85.7%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -76.9%
Why this period and asset
ARKK is an active theme ETF concentrated in so-called disruptive innovators across genomics, fintech, EVs and AI. From 2016 this 10-year window passes through the extremes of theme enthusiasm. It exploded higher and drew huge attention amid the ultra-low rates and growth-stock frenzy of 2020-2021, then, after peaking in 2021, collapsed far from its peak in the 2022 rate spike as expensive growth stocks were sold heavily. It is a signature case where money entering at peak popularity suffered severe losses.
Interpreting the result
ARKK is a highly concentrated theme with volatility no broad index can match. This window held an extremely deep maximum drawdown and a very long loss period, and money entering near the 2021 peak had to endure large paper losses for a long time before any recovery. Monthly investing keeps buying at lower prices through the collapse to lower your average cost, but that has limits when the theme stays depressed. The more hyped and narrative-driven the theme, the greater its overvaluation risk and drawdown, seen soberly.
Caveats & limits
This result simplifies taxes, trading fees and currency effects, and past performance does not guarantee the future. A highly concentrated, high-volatility theme ETF like ARKK can see drawdowns and loss periods vastly larger than a broad index when the trend cools, and recovery can be very slow after entering while overvalued. As a dollar asset, the won-based outcome shifts with USD/KRW.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-23
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: 复权收盘价(已反映股息与拆股)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
It is a basket of innovators, so why did it collapse so hard?
However appealing the innovation narrative, most holdings are richly valued growth stocks priced on far-future profits, so the 2022 rate spike shrank the present value of those hopes and they corrected extremely. Narrative and valuation are separate.
Can monthly investing offset such a collapse?
It helps by buying cheaper in the crash to lower your average cost. But limits are clear in a decline this deep and long, so always check the maximum drawdown and recovery time.
Are taxes and currency included?
This simulation simplifies dividends, fees, taxes and currency. In reality, overseas-ETF taxes and currency moves are added and can change the final return.
Related scenarios
📋 结果基于历史数据计算,过去的收益不代表未来的收益。
📋 本服务旨在帮助理解投资、供教育之用,并非投资建议。