What if you invested monthly in an Energy sector ETF (XLE) for 15 years?
This scenario invests a fixed USD amount every month in a U.S. energy sector ETF (XLE) from July 2011 to July 2026 — 15 years of dollar-cost averaging. It compares this oil-linked, deeply cyclical sector's swings and drawdowns against the S&P 500.
Investment conditions
Asset · Energy sector ETF (XLE)
Method · Recurring monthly investment
Period · 2011-07-01 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $222 / month
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-59.9%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
25months
Months in loss: 57
Recovery period
11months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $40,222 → Final value $83,794 (+108.3%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -59.9%
Why this period and asset
XLE holds large oil-and-gas companies, and its performance tracks international oil prices closely. The 2011-2026 window includes the 2014-2016 oil crash, the 2020 COVID demand collapse when crude briefly broke down to extreme lows, and the 2022 energy-price surge. The amplitude of its cycles was very large.
Interpreting the result
Energy is a classic high-volatility sector that swings sharply up and down with the oil cycle. Dollar-cost averaging spreads entry points across the cycle, but it does not change the fact that the sector's maximum drawdown was very deep. When oil collapsed, the loss period ran long and the recovery period could take years. Against the S&P 500, energy raced ahead in bull phases and fell far behind in bear phases — an extreme spread.
Caveats & limits
The energy sector is driven by oil prices, geopolitics, and supply-demand, making it hard to predict and prone to deep drawdowns. Past surges are no guarantee of repeats. Expense ratios, commissions, taxes, and currency moves affect results, and this scenario does not recommend buying the energy sector.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-23
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: 复权收盘价(已反映股息与拆股)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Why is an energy ETF so volatile?
Its performance is tightly linked to international oil prices, which swing hard with supply-demand, geopolitics, and the economy — deepening the sector's maximum drawdown.
Do I always gain when oil rises?
Not necessarily. Energy was strong in some oil upcycles, but depending on your entry point and the next downcycle you can still endure a loss period.
Does monthly investing reduce cycle risk?
It spreads your entry points, but it cannot remove the sector's deep drawdowns and long recovery periods.
Related scenarios
📋 结果基于历史数据计算,过去的收益不代表未来的收益。
📋 本服务旨在帮助理解投资、供教育之用,并非投资建议。