What if you bought the S&P 500 at the COVID bottom (March 2020)?
On March 23, 2020 — the day the COVID crash bottomed, when the market felt scariest — what if you had put a lump sum into an S&P 500 ETF (SPY)? This shows the actual historical result.
⚠️ Know the risk first
Warning: it turned out to be the bottom, but no one could know that at the time. Even buying at the low, you couldn't avoid later declines like the 2022 downturn.
What happened that day
March 23, 2020 was the day the COVID crash bottomed. At peak fear, the market began to rebound as the U.S. Fed and government signaled massive stimulus.
Why this date
We use the crash's low as the assumed buy date for the opposite hook — 'what if you bought when it was scariest.' Contrasting it with the first-case scenario reveals the impact of entry timing.
Investment conditions
Asset · S&P 500 ETF (SPY) · lump-sum, then held long-term
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 2020-03-23 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-24.5%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
0months
Months in loss: 0
Recovery period
15months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $27,024 (+264.8%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -24.5%
Why this period and asset
March 23, 2020 is recorded as the day the COVID crash bottomed. The news was full of lockdowns, unemployment, and death tolls, and fear was at its peak. That very day the U.S. Fed and government signaled massive stimulus, and the market began to rebound. This scenario handles the opposite hook to the first-case scenario: 'what if you bought when it was scariest.'
Interpreting the result
In hindsight the bottom became the launchpad for a strong rally. But remember that no one knew at the time that day was the bottom, and most people sold in fear instead. Even buying at the bottom, you still had to endure later swings like the 2022 rate-hike downturn. Check the maximum drawdown and loss period below.
Caveats & limits
Figures use adjusted close and exclude exchange rates, fees, and taxes. This does not guarantee that 'buying the bottom works' — bottoms are only knowable in hindsight, and this page recommends no buying timing.
Event fact sources
- Reuters/Bloomberg: 2020-03-23 S&P 500 COVID-crash low
- U.S. Federal Reserve: 2020-03-23 open-ended quantitative easing announcement
Requested date vs actual trading date
2020-03-23 is a trading day. If an event date is a holiday, we fill at the next trading day's close; the requested and actual fill dates may differ.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-25
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Cierre ajustado (refleja dividendos y desdoblamientos de acciones)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Was that really the bottom?
March 23, 2020 is recorded as the COVID-crash low. But at the time, no one could know it was the bottom.
How different is it from buying on the first-case date?
Placed side by side with the 'bought on the first COVID case (2020-01-20)' scenario, it shows how much entry timing splits the result within the same event.
After the bottom, were there no more swings?
No. You still endured later declines like the 2022 rate-hike downturn. See the risk metrics below.
So is buying during a crash always good?
No. COVID's recovery was unusually fast. In cases like the Lehman scenario, recovery took years. This is just one past case.
Are FX and taxes reflected?
No. Exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
Related scenarios
- What if you bought the S&P 500 on Korea's first COVID case?
- What if you bought the S&P 500 on the day Lehman collapsed (Sep 15, 2008)?
- Lump-sum vs monthly investing: which came out ahead?
- What if you invested $220 monthly in the S&P 500 for 10 years?
- What if you invested at the 2008 financial-crisis peak?
📋 Los resultados se basan en datos históricos; las rentabilidades pasadas no garantizan rentabilidades futuras.
📋 Este servicio se ofrece con fines educativos para ayudarte a entender la inversión, no como asesoramiento de inversión.