Stocks vs bonds: which wins over 15 years?

This page compares 15 years of steady monthly investing into an S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and a long-term US Treasury ETF (TLT), using the comparison calculator. Including the 2022 phase when bonds failed to defend, it revisits the 60/40 convention.

Investment conditions

Asset · S&P 500 ETF (SPY) vs Long-Term US Treasury ETF (TLT)

Method · Comparison

The key is that bonds are not 'always a safe defensive asset.' Bonds hinge heavily on the direction of rates, and when rates surge, even long Treasuries can suffer deep drawdowns. In the comparison calculator, review each asset's ending balance together with its maximum drawdown and recovery period. The purpose here is to see in the data—especially in a stretch like 2022 when stocks and bonds fell together—when diversification works and when it wobbles. Focus less on which return was higher and more on understanding each asset's risk character.

Open in comparison calculator

Why this period and asset

Stocks and bonds have traditionally been seen as assets that shine in different environments. Stocks are a growth asset that has trended up over time with the economy and earnings, while long-term Treasuries (TLT) rise in price when rates fall and have cushioned recessions and crises. That is why a mix like '60 stocks / 40 bonds' long served as a diversification default. But in 2022, rapid rate hikes to fight inflation drove stocks and long-term Treasuries down together, and long Treasuries suffered a large drawdown in particular. This 15-year window contains both phases where bonds defended and where they failed.

Caveats & limits

This comparison reflects one specific past period, and results can change with the start or end date. Past performance does not guarantee the future, and bonds in particular change character with the rate environment. In real investing, fees, taxes, and exchange rates (for dollar-denominated assets) affect outcomes. This page recommends no purchase; it is educational material comparing character.

Data sources & limits

Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.

Frequently asked questions

Which is better, stocks or bonds?

Neither is always better. Bonds have cushioned crises but also fell hard when rates surged, as in 2022. Use the comparison calculator to view return and drawdown side by side.

How do the risks differ?

Stocks are sensitive to the economy and earnings; long Treasuries are sensitive to the direction of rates. When rates surge, bonds too can suffer large drawdowns, so the notion of 'bonds = always safe' deserves reconsideration.

What should I use as the basis for comparison?

Look beyond the final return to maximum drawdown and recovery period, including a phase where both fell together (e.g., 2022). Understanding when diversification works and when it wobbles is what matters.

Related scenarios

📋 Los resultados se basan en datos históricos; las rentabilidades pasadas no garantizan rentabilidades futuras.

📋 Este servicio se ofrece con fines educativos para ayudarte a entender la inversión, no como asesoramiento de inversión.

⚠️ La volatilidad y el nivel de riesgo difieren según el activo, por lo que la rentabilidad por sí sola no determina cuál es mejor.