What if you invested monthly in a semiconductor ETF (SMH) for 20 years?
From 2006, 20 years passes through the financial crisis and several chip cycles. Whether you sat through the repeated cycles largely decides the outcome.
Investment conditions
Asset · Semiconductor ETF (SMH)
Method · Recurring monthly investment
Period · 2006-07-01 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $222 / month
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-44.8%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
26months
Months in loss: 33
Recovery period
8months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $53,556 → Final value $1,381,475 (+2479.5%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -44.8%
Why this period and asset
The 20 years starting in July 2006 open with the 2008 global financial crisis, a major crash. They then run through the smartphone era, the 2011-2012 correction, the 2018 trade war, the 2020 pandemic crash, the 2022 rate-hike correction, and the AI phase from 2023, with the industry's booms and busts repeating several times. Because chips are a cyclical industry driven by demand, inventory, and capital spending, these 20 years show alternating surges and sharp drops.
Interpreting the result
Over a span as long as 20 years, compounding becomes the central axis, but semiconductors swing very widely. From 2008 through several cycle troughs, large maximum drawdowns and long stretches below invested cost recurred, some taking years to recover. Buying a fixed amount each month accumulated more units at low prices in those crashes, and if you held through the cycles the next boom lifted those purchases. The point of this result is that it passed through repeated deep drawdowns and long time-underwater more than once.
Caveats & limits
This is a simplified simulation that ignores taxes, trading fees, and currency effects. A semiconductor ETF is concentrated in one industry and shows larger drawdowns and volatility than the broad market. Past performance does not guarantee future returns and depends on one specific start date. Figures follow USD-based prices; returns in another currency depend on exchange rates.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-23
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Cierre ajustado (refleja dividendos y desdoblamientos de acciones)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
How many chip cycles occur over 20 years?
From the 2008 crisis through 2018 and the 2022 correction, there were several large declines. Repeated deep drawdowns and time-underwater in each cycle are characteristic of semiconductors.
With 20 years, can I ignore the drawdowns?
No. Even over a long horizon you must actually endure each cycle's large drawdown and time-underwater, and stopping or selling along the way changes the outcome substantially.
Why do the 10-year and 20-year results differ?
A different start date means passing through different crises and cycles. Starting in 2006 means facing the 2008 crash early on, which makes it very different in character from a 2016 start.
Related scenarios
📋 Los resultados se basan en datos históricos; las rentabilidades pasadas no garantizan rentabilidades futuras.
📋 Este servicio se ofrece con fines educativos para ayudarte a entender la inversión, no como asesoramiento de inversión.