What if you invested monthly in a semiconductor ETF (SMH) for 10 years?
The past 10 years put chips at the center of the market as smartphones, data centers, and then the AI boom stacked up. That came with large gains but also steep volatility.
Investment conditions
Asset · Semiconductor ETF (SMH)
Method · Recurring monthly investment
Period · 2016-07-01 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $222 / month
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-41.7%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
0months
Months in loss: 0
Recovery period
11months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $26,889 → Final value $215,913 (+703.0%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -41.7%
Why this period and asset
The decade after July 2016 featured structural growth in the chip industry. Cloud and data-center expansion, the demand surge and supply crunch after the 2020-2021 pandemic, and AI-accelerator demand from 2023 onward lifted leading chipmakers into market leadership. Even so, there were sharp corrections along the way, including the 2018 trade-war pullback and the 2022 rate hikes with fears of a slowing chip cycle.
Interpreting the result
Over a 10-year span, compounding adds force to the result, but semiconductors are a cyclical industry with very wide swings up and down. This window still held a large maximum drawdown from the high and a stretch below invested cost, with phases that took time to recover. Buying a fixed amount each month accumulated more units at low prices at cycle troughs, and those units amplified the rebound in later recoveries. Still, this is a result concentrated in one industry, so it is volatile and offers no guarantee the same growth continues.
Caveats & limits
This is a simplified simulation that ignores taxes, trading fees, and currency effects. A semiconductor ETF is concentrated in one industry and is more volatile than the broad market. Past performance does not guarantee future returns and depends on one specific start date. Figures follow USD-based prices; returns in another currency depend on exchange rates.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-23
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Cierre ajustado (refleja dividendos y desdoblamientos de acciones)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Why is a semiconductor ETF so volatile?
Chips are a cyclical industry driven by demand, inventory, and capital spending that rise and fall. The swings between boom and bust are wide, so drawdowns and rebounds are both steeper than the broad market.
Will the AI boom keep pushing it up?
A strong past decade does not guarantee the future. Given the cyclical nature, large corrections can recur when demand slows or investment overshoots.
Is holding only a single-industry ETF fine?
Concentrating in one industry ties your results tightly to that industry's cycle. Expect potentially larger drawdowns and longer time-underwater than a broad-market index.
Related scenarios
📋 Los resultados se basan en datos históricos; las rentabilidades pasadas no garantizan rentabilidades futuras.
📋 Este servicio se ofrece con fines educativos para ayudarte a entender la inversión, no como asesoramiento de inversión.