What if you bought the VIX ETF (UVXY) on the day COVID fear spiked?
This uses real data to show what would have happened if you had invested a lump sum in UVXY — a leveraged short-term VIX-futures ETF that 'bets on fear' — on March 18, 2020, when the volatility index (VIX) surged to record levels amid COVID panic. We honestly examine the extreme decay risk of futures ETFs.
⚠️ Know the risk first
Bought at the peak of fear, this product falls extremely as volatility calms afterward. Futures-roll and leverage decay deepen losses when held long-term.
What happened that day
In mid-March 2020, COVID pandemic fear drove the volatility index (VIX) to record levels rivaling the 2008 crisis. Products that 'bet on fear,' like UVXY, also peaked in price at this time.
Why this date
The buy date is March 18, 2020, when the VIX reached record levels and UVXY's price peaked, computing 'what if you bet on fear on the day fear peaked.'
Investment conditions
Asset · UVXY (leveraged short-term VIX futures) · lump-sum, then held long-term
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 2020-03-18 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Buy and final prices are shown in the asset's local currency (US & crypto $, Japan ¥, Korea ₩). Total invested and final value are in Korean won (₩).
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-100.0%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
77months
Months in loss: 77
Recovery period
0months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $1 (-100.0%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -100.0%
Why this period and asset
Mid-March 2020 was an extreme-volatility stretch when stocks swung several percent a day amid pandemic fear. The VIX ('fear gauge') spiked to record levels rivaling the 2008 crisis, and products that 'bet on volatility,' like UVXY, surged in price. It was a moment when many were drawn to 'a product that makes money when stocks collapse.' The problem is that the very peak of fear was also the point where this product was most expensive.
Interpreting the result
This product behaves like 'insurance that rises when stocks fall,' so buying at the peak of fear means it melts down fast as markets calm. Read the final value and maximum drawdown below together to see how extremely this product fell once fear subsided. Short-term VIX-futures products suffer 'decay' from rolling futures daily (roll cost) and leverage, so their value keeps eroding when held long-term. This product was designed as a brief hedge, not a buy-and-hold asset. This is a rare case where the 'held long without selling' premise of this page actually deepens the loss.
Caveats & limits
This is a derivative designed for short-term volatility hedging, not directional long-term investing. Because of decay from futures roll and leverage, its value tends to erode continuously when held long-term. Always review the maximum drawdown and loss periods. Figures use adjusted close and exclude exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes. This is past data only, does not guarantee the future, and recommends no product.
Event fact sources
- Cboe — VIX Index historical data (2020-03)
- Reuters, COVID market volatility coverage (2020-03)
Requested date vs actual trading date
If the event date is a market holiday, the fill uses the next trading day's close. The 'effective trading date' below is the date actually used.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-28
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Why use March 18, 2020 as the buy date?
Around then, COVID fear pushed the VIX to record levels and UVXY's price was at a peak. It best captures the idea of 'betting on fear on the day fear peaked.'
It rises when stocks crash — why is the result bad?
It briefly surges when volatility spikes, but falls fast once volatility calms. On top of that, rolling futures daily and leverage cause 'decay,' so buying at the peak of fear and holding long produces large losses.
What exactly does 'decay' mean?
The cost of rolling into a pricier next-month futures contract each expiry, plus the losses a leveraged product accrues as it recalculates daily moves, pile up. Even if you get the direction right, value leaks away over time.
Are FX and taxes reflected?
No. Exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax. This page only shows historical data and recommends no specific product.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.