What if you bought the oil ETF (USO) on the negative-price day?
This uses real data to show what would have happened if you had invested a lump sum in the oil ETF USO on April 20, 2020 — the day WTI crude futures went negative for the first time in history. We honestly examine the structural risk of a futures-based ETF.
⚠️ Know the risk first
USO rolls futures rather than holding physical oil, carrying the structural risk of accumulating roll costs. Even if oil recovers, USO's return may not, so never equate 'oil price = USO.'
What happened that day
On April 20, 2020, as COVID crushed oil demand and storage filled up, the expiring WTI May futures contract fell to a negative price (about -$37) for the first time ever. A rush to avoid taking delivery collapsed the price in an unprecedented event.
Why this date
The buy date is the historic day oil first went negative, computing directly 'what if you bought an oil ETF on the most extreme day of fear.'
Investment conditions
Asset · USO (crude oil futures ETF) · lump-sum on the negative-oil day, then held
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 2020-04-20 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Buy and final prices are shown in the asset's local currency (US & crypto $, Japan ¥, Korea ₩). Total invested and final value are in Korean won (₩).
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-43.2%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
4months
Months in loss: 6
Recovery period
0months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $25,499 (+244.2%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -43.2%
Why this period and asset
On April 20, 2020, as COVID evaporated oil demand and storage ran out, the expiring WTI May futures contract fell to a never-before-seen negative price (about -$37) — an unprecedented event. Because holding the contract to expiry meant taking physical delivery of oil, traders dumped it in a rush and the price collapsed. USO is an ETF that rolls futures rather than holding physical oil, so it took heavy losses in the chaos and then suffered from ongoing 'roll' costs each time it had to switch to the next contract.
Interpreting the result
This is a classic case of why the intuition 'oil is at the bottom, so the oil ETF must be too' is dangerous. Even when oil recovers, a futures ETF like USO often fails to recover as much as spot oil because of roll losses. Review the final value and maximum drawdown versus total invested below, but also see that 'the commodity itself' and 'a futures ETF that tracks it' are entirely different products. Buying without understanding this can lose money even when oil rises.
Caveats & limits
USO is an ETF that rolls futures rather than holding physical oil, so long-term holding carries the structural risk of accumulating roll costs. Right after this event, USO changed its structure several times and even did a reverse split. Its return can diverge widely from spot oil and indexes, so never assume 'oil price = USO return.' Figures use adjusted close and exclude exchange rates, fees, and taxes; always review the maximum drawdown and loss periods.
Event fact sources
- U.S. Energy Information Administration — Negative WTI price (2020-04)
- CNBC, WTI crude futures turn negative coverage (2020-04-20)
Requested date vs actual trading date
If the event date is a holiday, the fill uses the next trading day's close. The 'effective trading date' below is the date actually used.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-28
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Did oil really go negative?
Yes. On April 20, 2020, the WTI May futures contract fell to about -$37 per barrel for the first time ever. With storage full, it was better to pay someone to take the contract than to take delivery. But that is the story of a specific futures contract, which differs again from USO's own P&L.
So if oil recovers, does USO recover the same amount?
Not necessarily. USO rolls its futures to the next contract at each expiry, and if costs leak in that process, the ETF may not rise as much as spot oil even when oil climbs. That is the structural trap of futures ETFs and the core point of this page.
Why use April 20, 2020 as the buy date?
It is the historic day oil futures went negative for the first time. It best captures 'what if you bought an oil ETF on the most extreme day of fear.' Note that USO itself also fell sharply the next day.
Are FX and taxes reflected?
No. Exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax. This page only shows historical data and recommends no specific product.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.