What if you bought long-term Treasuries (TLT) at their all-time high?
This uses real data to show what would have happened if you had invested a lump sum in TLT (a 20+ year Treasury ETF) in August 2020 — when zero rates pushed long-bond prices to an all-time high. We honestly show that even 'safe-haven' bonds can lose heavily.
⚠️ Know the risk first
Long Treasuries are highly rate-sensitive and fall hard when rates rise. 'Safe haven' means low default risk, not stable prices. See the 40%-plus decline in the maximum drawdown.
What happened that day
In early August 2020, the Fed's COVID response cut rates to near zero and U.S. long-bond prices hit an all-time high. When the Fed hiked rapidly in 2022, the 'safe-haven' long Treasury TLT crashed more than 40% from its peak.
Why this date
The buy date is August 4, 2020, when zero rates pushed U.S. long-bond prices to their all-time high (TLT's peak on a closing basis), computing 'what if you bought when bonds were most expensive.'
Investment conditions
Asset · TLT (US 20+ year Treasury ETF) · lump-sum at the all-time high, then held
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 2020-08-04 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Buy and final prices are shown in the asset's local currency (US & crypto $, Japan ¥, Korea ₩). Total invested and final value are in Korean won (₩).
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-48.4%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
72months
Months in loss: 72
Recovery period
0months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $4,439 (-40.1%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -48.4%
Why this period and asset
Early August 2020 was when the Fed's COVID response cut rates to near zero and U.S. long-bond prices hit an all-time high. Rates and bond prices move inversely, so rock-bottom rates meant top-tier bond prices. When the Fed then hiked rapidly in 2022 amid the worst inflation in 40 years, TLT — considered a 'safe haven' — crashed more than 40% from its peak.
Interpreting the result
This is a classic case that the belief 'bonds are safe' does not always hold. Long-maturity Treasuries in particular are highly rate-sensitive, so when rates rise they can fall as much as stocks. Check the maximum drawdown below to see how far the supposedly safe bond fell. When holding bonds in asset allocation, you must understand rate direction and maturity (duration) risk; the idea 'bond = always safe' is dangerous.
Caveats & limits
Long-term Treasuries can lose heavily when rates rise. 'Safe haven' means low default risk, not that the price won't fall. TLT holds 20+ year Treasuries with long duration and is highly sensitive to rate moves. Figures use adjusted close and exclude exchange rates, fees, and taxes; always review the maximum drawdown and loss periods.
Event fact sources
- U.S. Federal Reserve — 2020 rate policy (zero rates)
- Reuters, 2022 bond market rout / TLT decline coverage
Requested date vs actual trading date
If the event date is a holiday, the fill uses the next trading day's close. The 'effective trading date' below is the date actually used.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-28
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Aren't Treasuries a safe haven? Why did it drop 40%?
'Safe haven' means low risk the government defaults, not that the price is stable. Bond prices move inversely to rates: bought at zero rates in 2020 (bond top), TLT crashed more than 40% from its peak when the Fed hiked rapidly in 2022.
Why use August 4, 2020 as the buy date?
That is when zero rates pushed U.S. long-bond prices to an all-time high. It best captures the worst-timing assumption of 'buying when rates were at rock bottom — that is, when bonds were most expensive.'
So should I never buy bonds?
Not at all. This page neither recommends nor opposes bonds. It simply warns against the misconception 'bonds are always safe' and shows you must understand rate direction and duration risk.
Are FX and taxes reflected?
No. Exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax. This only shows historical data and does not guarantee the future.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.