What if you bought the S&P 500 five years ago today?
Five years ago today (2021-08-03), when 'quiet optimism' — not a special event — enveloped the market, what would 10 million KRW put into the S&P 500 (SPY) have become? With real data, and without hiding the drawdown, we see that even a purchase on the calmest-looking day had big swings hidden afterward.
⚠️ Know the risk first
This moment is not a 'crisis' but an ordinary day 'just before peak optimism.' Someone who bought that day saw a profit peak five months later (2022-01), but then in the 2022 downturn fell below cost even versus the purchase price for a while (about -25% on an index basis). It later recovered and set new highs, but the time to recovery and the interim drawdown really existed, and there is no guarantee it recovers this way every time. Always check the maximum drawdown and loss period.
What happened that day
Not a specific event but a relative-date pattern: 'exactly five years before today.' On 2021-08-03, the S&P 500 was near an all-time high (4,423.15) and the VIX was low, around 18 — a day of 'quiet optimism' far from fear. We look at what swings followed when you bought on this ordinary bull-market day.
Why this date
This page uses a relative-date pattern that sets the purchase date to 'exactly five years before today.' Five years before the reference date (2026-08-03) is 2021-08-03, a normal trading Tuesday, so no trading-day adjustment was needed. It is a case to test the 'ordinary bull-market day' pattern, distinct from event anchors.
Investment conditions
Asset · S&P 500 ETF (SPY) · lump-sum of 10 million KRW
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 2021-08-03 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Before you see the result — what would you do?
If you bought this index on that calm day near record highs with a low fear gauge, then in the downturn that followed, you would?
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Buy and final prices are shown in the asset's local currency (US & crypto $, Japan ¥, Korea ₩). Total invested and final value are in Korean won (₩).
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-24.5%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
14months
Months in loss: 17
Recovery period
15months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $13,398 (+80.9%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -24.5%
Why this period and asset
August 3, 2021 was not a day of any special event but rather one wrapped in quiet optimism. That day the S&P 500 closed higher at 4,423.15, near an all-time high, and the VIX fear gauge was around 18, historically low. Behind it was zero interest rates (held at 0.00-0.25% since March 2020). There were shadows too — the Delta variant was spreading again, the CDC reissued an eviction moratorium, and the most recently released June CPI was 5.4%, the highest inflation in 13 years. At the time, a debate raged over whether that inflation was 'transitory.'
Interpreting the result
Read the final return alongside the maximum drawdown, loss period, and recovery period below. For a few months after the purchase, the liquidity rally continued and the index hit an all-time high in January 2022, but as inflation surged, the Fed began raising rates aggressively from March 2022, and the index entered an official bear market in June 2022 — a stretch in which even the shares bought on 2021-08-03 fell below cost for a while.
Caveats & limits
It is true that the index later recovered and set new highs, but that does not lead to 'it always recovers, so buy anytime and hold.' In this case recovery took time, and there is no guarantee it recovers this way every time. As an index ETF, survivorship bias is smaller than for a single stock, but this still leans on the fact that the U.S. market recovered. Figures use adjusted close and exclude exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes — pre-tax. What to buy or sell, and when, is your own decision.
Market conditions on the purchase date
Macro indicators as of the assumed purchase date. Faded values are confirmed by a single source only and are for reference (not cross-checked by two sources).
US policy rate
0.00~0.25%
목표범위. 2020-03 코로나 대응 인하 후 유지. 첫 인상은 2022-03.
CPI (YoY)
5.40
% YoY. 6월 CPI, 13년 최고. 7월 CPI는 8/11 발표라 매수일(8/3) 시점 미포함. '일시적' 논쟁 배경.
VIX (fear index)
18.04
역사적으로 낮은 편(공포 낮음). 원천은 CBOE지만 CBOE/FRED 직접 접근 차단으로 완전 독립 2공급자 교차는 못 함.
Dollar index (DXY)
92.08
달러지수 92 부근(약보합). 정확 종가(Yahoo)와 당일자 기사(약 92)가 일치.
Headlines from that day
Actual headlines reported at the time. Tap a title to open the source.
- CDC, 델타 변이 확산에 임차인 퇴거유예(eviction moratorium) 재발령
CDC · 2021-08-03
- S&P500, 사상 최고가 부근에서 4,423.15로 상승 마감 — 낙관장 지속
Yahoo Finance · 2021-08-03
- 7월 ADP 민간고용 +33만명, 예상(65.3만) 크게 미달 — 델타 우려로 다우 -0.92%
CNBC / Reuters · 2021-08-04
- 미국 6월 CPI +5.4% YoY — 13년 만의 최고 인플레(당시 최신 지표)
BLS / FXStreet · 2021-07-13
The mood back then
It was not a day of any special event. Rather, quiet optimism enveloped the market. That day the S&P 500 closed higher at 4,423.15, near an all-time high, and two days later, on August 5, it set a new high again at 4,429.10. The VIX, the so-called fear index, was around 18 — historically low. Compared with topping 60 during the COVID crash, the market had almost no fear. Behind it was zero interest rates. The Fed's policy rate had been held at 0.00-0.25% since March 2020, and overflowing liquidity supported the appetite for risk assets. But there were shadows. The Delta variant was spreading again, and that day the CDC reissued an eviction moratorium, while the most recently released June CPI was 5.4%, the highest inflation in 13 years. At the time, a debate raged over whether that price rise was 'transitory' or not.
What people were thinking at the time
That day's headlines reveal the market's two minds. On one side, articles like 'S&P 500 closes higher near an all-time high — optimism persists.' With zero rates and a low VIX, the urge to buy stocks was strong. On the other side were the Delta resurgence and inflation worries. In fact, the July ADP private payrolls released the next day (August 4) came in at 330,000, far short of the 653,000 estimate, and the Dow took a -0.92% one-day pullback. But that disappointment lasted only a day, and by the weekend the index was again near its highs. The known inflation was June CPI at 5.4%, and views were evenly split between 'transitory' and 'it will persist.' Which side was right, no one could confirm at the time.
What actually happened afterward
For a few months after the purchase, the liquidity rally continued. The S&P 500 hit an all-time closing high of 4,796.56 on January 3, 2022, and the shares bought here were at their peak unrealized profit. Up to this point the story would be 'good thing you bought,' but the trouble came afterward. As inflation kept rising, the 'transitory' forecast was scrapped, and the Fed began raising rates aggressively from March 2022. The S&P 500 entered an official bear market (down -20% from its peak) in June 2022, and fell to 3,577.03 on October 12, 2022, about -25.4% below the January peak. In this stretch, even the shares bought on August 3, 2021 fell below cost for a while (negative even versus the purchase price). It then recovered over 2023-2024 and set new highs again, but the fact remains that it went through several months of loss and a large drawdown before recovering the principal. The exact maximum drawdown, loss period, and months to recovery follow this page's calculation figures.
What this record shows
What this case shows is that even an investment made on 'the calmest-looking day' can go through big swings afterward. That day, with the VIX at 18 and near record highs, was far from fear, yet within a year and a half the index fell about -25%, and the buyer's account was below cost for a while. It is true that it later recovered and set new highs, but that does not lead to 'it recovered eventually, so buy anytime and hold.' In this case recovery took time, and there is no guarantee it recovers this way every time. The purpose of this page is to show that even the price on a day dominated by optimism hid this much of a loss period, and to look at that drawdown and recovery period together as numbers. What to buy or sell, and when, is your own decision.
Event fact sources
- Yahoo Finance (S&P 500 4,423.15, VIX 18.04, DXY 92.08): https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/
- BLS June CPI +5.4% (released 2021-07-13, 13-year high): https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07132021.pdf
- CDC eviction moratorium reissued (2021-08-03): https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/media/releases/2021/s0803-cdc-eviction-order.html
Requested date vs actual trading date
2021-08-03 was a normal trading Tuesday (NYSE). The requested date and the actual fill date are the same.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-08-03
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
How is 'five years ago today' determined?
This page uses a relative-date method that sets the purchase date to 'exactly five years before today.' Five years before the reference date (2026-08-03) is 2021-08-03, and that day was a normal trading Tuesday, so no trading-day adjustment was needed. It is a case to show buying on 'an ordinary bull-market day' with no special event.
It looked like the calmest day — why was there a loss period?
That day, with the VIX at 18 and near record highs, was far from fear, yet within a year and a half the index fell about -25% (its October 2022 low). The purchased account was below cost for a while too. See the exact maximum drawdown, loss period, and months to recovery in the calculation above.
Are exchange rates and taxes reflected?
No. Exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes are excluded — pre-tax, in KRW. In real U.S. ETF investing, the KRW/USD rate and taxes further affect returns. This page shows past data only and does not recommend any product.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.