What if you bought NVIDIA the week Silicon Valley Bank collapsed?
In March 2023, on the first trading day (March 13) after two U.S. banks failed within three days, what would 10 million KRW put into NVIDIA (NVDA) have become? We show it with real data — while noting up front that this is strictly hindsight and cannot be generalized into 'a crisis is a buying opportunity.'
⚠️ Know the risk first
This result is strictly hindsight. On 2023-03-13, a scenario of cascading bank failures was seriously debated among markets, media, and regulators — the peak of fear. That day First Republic plunged 60-70% (it later went bankrupt in May and was acquired by JPMorgan), and in Europe Credit Suisse was force-merged into UBS the same month. This event must not be generalized as 'a crisis is a buying opportunity' — bank stocks bought under the same conditions ended in delisting and total loss.
⚠️ This asset is an individual stock chosen as of today, so past returns can look better than they really were (survivorship bias).
What happened that day
In March 2023, Silicon Valley Bank (3/10) and Signature Bank (3/12) were closed back-to-back, and fear of 'the next Lehman' was real. Regulators guaranteed all deposits and the Fed launched the BTFP to contain it, yet on the first trading day (March 13) regional bank stocks like First Republic still crashed in a chain reaction. In hindsight it looks like a low just before the AI rally, but at the time it was the peak of fear, when a scenario of cascading bank failures was seriously discussed.
Why this date
After SVB closed on Friday 3/10 and Signature on Sunday 3/12, the first normal U.S. trading day was Monday 2023-03-13. We use that peak-of-fear moment as the assumed purchase date. The Fed's BTFP also opened that day.
Investment conditions
Asset · NVIDIA (NVDA) · lump-sum of 10 million KRW
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 2023-03-13 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Before you see the result — what would you do?
On this day, with two banks collapsed and the fear index spiking, if you held this stock in your account?
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Buy and final prices are shown in the asset's local currency (US & crypto $, Japan ¥, Korea ₩). Total invested and final value are in Korean won (₩).
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-36.9%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
0months
Months in loss: 0
Recovery period
3months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $63,858 (+762.1%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -36.9%
Why this period and asset
Monday, March 13, 2023 was the first normal trading day after Silicon Valley Bank (closed 3/10) and Signature Bank (closed 3/12) failed back-to-back. Over the weekend, regulators guaranteed all deposits of both banks and the Fed launched the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), yet fear did not subside. That day the VIX spiked to 30.81 intraday, and the 2-year Treasury yield fell 48.9bp in a single day — the largest one-day drop since 2008. In hindsight it was a low just before the AI rally, but nobody saw it that way at the time.
Interpreting the result
Check the final value and cumulative/annualized return versus the amount invested below, but always read them alongside the maximum drawdown and loss period. NVIDIA's large subsequent rise was the result of a single stock and the AI industry cycle — not evidence that 'buying during a crisis pays off.' Bank stocks collapsing that same week (like First Republic) later went bankrupt and were delisted, effectively a total loss — the outcome was the opposite depending on what you bought.
Caveats & limits
This result picks, in hindsight, an individual stock that survived and rose sharply, so survivorship bias is strong. Many bank stocks that could have been bought under the same conditions that day ended in total loss, and in Europe Credit Suisse was force-merged that same month. Figures use adjusted close and exclude exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes — pre-tax. The maximum drawdown and loss period above show, even for a stock that recovered, how large the drop and how long the wait were in between. This is past data only, does not guarantee the future, and does not recommend buying or selling any security.
Market conditions on the purchase date
Macro indicators as of the assumed purchase date. Faded values are confirmed by a single source only and are for reference (not cross-checked by two sources).
US policy rate
4.50~4.75%
목표범위. 2023-02-01 FOMC 인상 후 값(2023-03-22 추가 인상 이전).
CPI (YoY)
6.40
% YoY. 매수일 기준 최신 발표치는 1월 CPI 6.4%(2/14 발표). 2월 CPI 6.0%는 다음 날(3/14) 발표라 미포함.
VIX (fear index)
26.52
1분기 최고 종가. 장중 30.81까지 급등.
Dollar index (DXY)
103.63
당일 -0.91%. 2년물 금리 48.9bp 급락(2008년 이후 최대)으로 달러 약세.
Headlines from that day
Actual headlines reported at the time. Tap a title to open the source.
- First Republic 주가 60%+ 폭락 — SVB 정부 백스톱에도 지역은행주 동반 급락
CNBC · 2023-03-13
- First Republic Bank stock plunges 60% as regional bank fears continue
CNN Business · 2023-03-13
- Dollar slides as Fed rate-hike expectations slump on SVB collapse
CNBC / Reuters · 2023-03-13
- 미 당국, SVB·시그니처 모든 예금 전액 보호 + 연준 BTFP 신설
Federal Reserve · 2023-03-12
The mood back then
Monday, March 13, 2023 was the first day the stock market opened after two U.S. banks collapsed within three days. On Friday March 10, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was closed following a bank run, and two days later Signature Bank shut down too. Over the weekend, regulators guaranteed all deposits of both banks and announced the Fed's new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), but market fear did not subside. That day the VIX (fear index) spiked to 30.81 intraday and closed at 26.52, its highest of the quarter, while the 2-year Treasury yield fell 48.9bp in a single day — the largest one-day drop since the 2008 financial crisis. The policy rate was 4.50-4.75%, and the latest inflation the market knew was January CPI at 6.4% year over year, still a high-inflation environment. In short, it was a hard-to-read moment of 'fear of cascading bank failures amid high inflation.'
What people were thinking at the time
That day's headlines were filled not with optimism but with 'contagion' fear. CNBC reported that despite the government's full guarantee of SVB deposits, First Republic Bank's stock plunged more than 70% intraday and was halted (2023-03-13), and CNN Business ran the headline 'First Republic stock drops 60% as regional bank fears continue.' Regional bank stocks fell together — PacWest -45%, Western Alliance -47%. The same day, Reuters and CNBC reported that the SVB collapse sharply reduced expectations for continued Fed rate hikes, turning the dollar weaker. In a joint statement on March 12, the Fed, Treasury, and FDIC guaranteed all deposits of both banks and launched the BTFP — but this was a measure to calm things, not a signal that the crisis was over. At the time, many investors and media worried this was 'the start of a Lehman-scale crisis,' and almost no one saw it as 'a low just before the AI rally.'
What actually happened afterward
Looking back, two completely different endings existed side by side. On one side, NVIDIA (NVDA) confirmed surging demand for AI chips in its May 2023 earnings and rose sharply afterward. But the banks collapsing that same week ended the opposite way. First Republic, the star of the headlines, did not stabilize — deposit outflows continued, and on May 1, 2023 it failed and was placed under FDIC receivership before being acquired by JPMorgan, leaving shareholders with effectively a total loss and delisting. In Europe, Credit Suisse fell into crisis that same March and was urgently acquired by UBS. So even the same action of 'buying something that week in March 2023' led to a surge for one and a total loss for another, depending on what was bought. NVDA rose as a result of a single stock and the AI industry cycle — not because the bank crisis that day was 'resolved.'
What this record shows
This result is strictly hindsight. At that moment on March 13, 2023, no one could know whether it was the bottom or the start of a Lehman-scale crisis. In reality, bank stocks that could have been bought under the same conditions that same week (like First Republic) ended in bankruptcy, delisting, and total loss, and Credit Suisse was force-merged. So NVDA's rise on this page must not be generalized into 'buying during a crisis pays off' or 'fear equals opportunity' — that is survivorship bias, looking only at the survivors. The maximum drawdown and loss period shown in the calculation above reveal, even for a stock that did recover, how large the drop and how long the wait were in between. The point of this record is to remember that nobody knew that day what would rise and what would vanish, and that one case of a rise is no guarantee it will repeat in the next crisis.
Event fact sources
- FDIC press release (SVB/Signature receivership): https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23019.html
- Federal Reserve BTFP 13(3) report: https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/13-3-report-btfp-20230316.pdf
- CNBC 2023-03-13 (First Republic plunge, regional banks decline): https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/13/first-republic-drops-bank-stocks-decline.html
Requested date vs actual trading date
2023-03-13 was a normal trading Monday. The requested date and the actual fill date are the same.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-08-03
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- This asset is an individual stock chosen as of today, so past returns can look better than they really were (survivorship bias).
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Why use March 13, 2023 as the purchase date?
After SVB closed on Friday March 10 and Signature Bank on Sunday March 12, the first normal U.S. trading day was Monday March 13. It symbolizes the peak of the bank-contagion fear. The Fed's BTFP also opened that day.
So does buying during a crisis mean it goes up?
No. The rise on this page is simply one case where a specific stock, NVIDIA, happened to recover. First Republic, which crashed alongside it that same week, went bankrupt in May and was acquired by JPMorgan, wiping out shareholders. 'Fear equals opportunity' is survivorship bias — cherry-picking only the survivors — and nobody knew that day which stocks would rise and which would vanish.
Are exchange rates and taxes reflected?
No. Exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes are excluded — figures are pre-tax. In real U.S. stock investing, the KRW/USD rate and taxes further affect returns. This page shows past data only and does not recommend any product.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.
⚠️ Calculated using today's representative assets, which may differ from the market composition at the time.