What if you bought SMH the day chips surged on Nvidia's AI earnings?
This uses real data to show what would have happened if you had invested a lump sum of ₩10M in the U.S. semiconductor ETF (SMH) on May 25, 2023, when chips surged on Nvidia's AI earnings surprise. It looks at riding the AI boom via an index rather than a single stock.
⚠️ Know the risk first
Even buying on the boom's ignition day, the semiconductor sector then swung sharply with the economic and inventory cycle. SMH is concentrated in one sector and more volatile than the whole market. Be sure to review the maximum drawdown metric.
What happened that day
After the close on May 24, 2023, Nvidia reported earnings that blew past expectations and guided to about $11 billion in next-quarter revenue; on the next trading day, May 25, chip stocks and indexes surged together. It is often cited as the day the AI-semiconductor boom truly ignited.
Why this date
Nvidia reported after the close on May 24, and the day the chip index surged on it was the next trading day, May 25. We set this date to match 'what if you entered via an index on the first day the boom hit actual prices.'
Investment conditions
Asset · SMH (US semiconductor ETF) · lump-sum on the AI-boom ignition day, then held long-term
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 2023-05-25 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Buy and final prices are shown in the asset's local currency (US & crypto $, Japan ¥, Korea ₩). Total invested and final value are in Korean won (₩).
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-35.7%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
0months
Months in loss: 0
Recovery period
2months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $33,167 (+347.8%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -35.7%
Why this period and asset
After the close on May 24, 2023, Nvidia reported earnings that blew past expectations and guided to about $11 billion in next-quarter revenue. On the next trading day, May 25, chip stocks and indexes surged together. That day is often cited as when the AI-semiconductor boom truly ignited. This case looks at riding that boom via the broad semiconductor index SMH rather than the single stock Nvidia.
Interpreting the result
This page shows 'what if, on the ignition day of the most hyped boom, you entered via an index ETF instead of a single stock.' Review the final value and return in the metrics below, and note that an index is not free of volatility. Semiconductors are sensitive to the economic and inventory cycle, so sharp swings recurred afterward. Compared with going all-in on the single stock (Nvidia), a sector index like SMH spreads single-stock risk but still carries the semiconductor sector's own volatility. Be sure to review the maximum drawdown below.
Caveats & limits
Even buying on the boom's ignition day, the path afterward had sharp swings. SMH is concentrated in one sector (semiconductors) and is more volatile than the whole market. It has less survivorship bias than a single stock, but that does not mean 'index = safe.' Figures use adjusted close and exclude exchange rates, fees, and taxes; always review the maximum drawdown and loss periods. Past results do not guarantee the future.
Event fact sources
- Seeking Alpha — Nvidia surges as Q1 results, guidance smash expectations (2023-05)
- CNBC — Asian semiconductor stocks surge after Nvidia earnings (2023)
Requested date vs actual trading date
If the event date is a holiday, the fill uses the next trading day's close. The 'effective trading date' below is the date actually used.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-28
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Why use May 25, 2023 as the buy date?
Nvidia reported its AI earnings surprise after the close on May 24, and the day chip stocks and indexes surged on it was the next trading day, May 25. We chose this date to match 'what if you entered via an index on the first day the boom hit actual prices.'
Why SMH and not Nvidia?
To see what riding the boom via the broad semiconductor index SMH — instead of the single stock Nvidia — would have looked like. An index ETF spreads single-stock concentration risk but also dilutes the upside when that one stock soars. Neither is 'the right answer.'
Is an index ETF safe?
It can be less risky, but it is not safe. SMH is concentrated in one sector (semiconductors) and is more volatile than a broad market index. Chips are cyclical and swing sharply. Check the maximum drawdown metric below.
Are FX and taxes reflected?
No. Exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax. This page only shows historical data and recommends no product.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.