Deposits vs. stocks: a 20-year gap
This compares the estimated results of a 3%-a-year deposit and an S&P 500 ETF when investing about $370 every month for 20 years. See the difference in volatility and opportunity cost for yourself.
投资条件摘要
Jan 2006 – Jan 2026 (20 years)
about $370 / month
3%/yr deposit vs. S&P 500 ETF (USD basis)
Paid in at each month-end
⚠️ 以下所有结果均为基于过去数据的估算值,并以税前呈现。计入费用、汇率与税款后,实际结果可能有所不同。
Total principal paid in
about $89k
20 years × 12 months × ~$370
Deposit estimated result (after-tax approx.)
about $121k
~3%/yr simple/compound approximation, interest-income tax applied
S&P 500 estimated result (estimate, pre-tax)
about $333k
FX effect not reflected, pre-tax, fees not reflected (estimate)
Difference between the two (pre-tax basis)
about $212k difference
The S&P 500 after-tax result is lower
最大回撤期间: Oct 2007 – Mar 2009
-56.8% (S&P 500 basis)
约 52 个月恢复
The key test of the 20-year S&P 500 investment. Whether you stayed invested through this stretch decides the 20-year result. The deposit's principal was protected even during this period.
Deposits vs. stocks: the difference in numbers
Assuming you pay in about $370 every month for 20 years, the total principal is about $89k.
A 3%-a-year deposit (compounded) is estimated at around $121k. That is about $32k of gain over the principal, but it shrinks further once interest-income tax is paid.
Had you made recurring investments in an S&P 500 ETF, the estimated final amount is about $333k (pre-tax, FX effect not reflected). On a pre-tax basis, that is about $212k more than the deposit.
But this comparison assumes you endured the -56.8% (financial crisis) and -33.9% (COVID) crashes over the S&P 500's 20-year journey. A deposit has none of that fear.
Enduring volatility is the precondition
That the stock result is far larger than the deposit is clear from simple numbers. But to actually experience that difference, you had to endure countless bouts of volatility, including two big crashes (the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID crash).
In March 2009, when your account value fell below half of the principal, you had to overcome the fear of "am I going to lose all of this?" If you cannot overcome that fear and sell at the low, you end up worse off than a deposit.
A deposit offers low returns, but along the way there is no worry of losing principal. The choice differs by each person's risk tolerance. This service does not say which is better. It only shows both results using past data.
📋 结果基于历史数据计算,过去的收益不代表未来的收益。
📋 本服务旨在帮助理解投资、供教育之用,并非投资建议。