What if you bought the S&P 500 on the day Lehman collapsed (Sep 15, 2008)?
On September 15, 2008 — the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy that became the symbol of the global financial crisis — what if you had put a lump sum into an S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and held it until now? This shows the actual historical result.
⚠️ Know the risk first
Strong warning: entering on this date meant enduring a loss toward half over the next six months. The maximum drawdown and loss period below capture this.
What happened that day
On September 15, 2008, investment bank Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and the global financial crisis erupted. This was not the bottom; the market lost about half its value from peak by March 2009.
Why this date
We anchor on the bankruptcy day that symbolized the crisis, using it as the assumed buy date to show that it was not the bottom — the real pain lasted another six months.
Investment conditions
Asset · S&P 500 ETF (SPY) · lump-sum, then held long-term
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 2008-09-15 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-44.7%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
18months
Months in loss: 22
Recovery period
13months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $63,944 (+763.3%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -44.7%
Why this period and asset
On September 15, 2008, the 158-year-old investment bank Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, and the global financial crisis erupted. But this was not the bottom. The market kept collapsing, losing roughly half its value from peak by March 2009. Even entering on the day the crisis's symbolic event broke, the real pain lasted another six months — that is what this case shows.
Interpreting the result
Entering on the Lehman bankruptcy day meant enduring a brutal loss as the position fell toward half over the next six months. Yet holding long-term rather than selling produced a very different outcome through the long subsequent U.S. rally. But be sure to also see how long recovery took and the maximum drawdown. If you sold during that stretch, the result flips entirely.
Caveats & limits
Figures use adjusted close and exclude exchange rates, fees, and taxes. This does not guarantee that 'holding always recovers' — it is only one past case of holding an index for a long time. Many single stocks or other markets never recovered.
Event fact sources
- Lehman Brothers Chapter 11 filing 2008-09-15 (U.S. Bankruptcy Court record)
- Reuters/Bloomberg: 2008–2009 S&P 500 fell about -57% from peak
Requested date vs actual trading date
2008-09-15 is a trading day. If an event date is a holiday, we fill at the next trading day's close; the requested and actual fill dates may differ.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-25
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: 复权收盘价(已反映股息与拆股)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Was the Lehman day the bottom?
No. After September 15, 2008, the market kept falling and bottomed in March 2009. This scenario anchors on 'the day the crisis's symbolic event broke.'
How does it differ from the 2007-peak scenario?
The existing 'peak just before the 2008 crisis (Oct 2007)' scenario covers entering at the pre-crisis top; this one covers entering on the Lehman eruption day. The entry point differs.
How long did recovery take?
See the recovery-period metric below. After Lehman, the market fell further to the low before it took considerable time to recover the principal.
So can you buy any time during a crisis?
No. COVID recovered fast, but the financial crisis took far longer. Recovery speed differs by crisis, and this page recommends no timing.
Are FX and taxes reflected?
No. Exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
Related scenarios
📋 结果基于历史数据计算,过去的收益不代表未来的收益。
📋 本服务旨在帮助理解投资、供教育之用,并非投资建议。