S&P 500 vs Bitcoin: which wins over 7 years?
This page compares steady monthly investing into an S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Bitcoin (BTC) since 2019, using the comparison calculator. It places the potential for high returns alongside extreme drawdowns to show how the answer depends heavily on your risk tolerance.
Investment conditions
Asset · S&P 500 ETF (SPY) vs Bitcoin (BTC)
Method · Comparison
The key here is not the final return but the volatility you had to endure to get it. Bitcoin at times far outpaced the index, yet along the way it passed through phases where its value more than halved, several times over. The S&P 500 moved comparatively gently. In the comparison calculator, be sure to check each asset's ending balance together with its maximum drawdown and recovery period. The same contribution can carry very different psychological strain and risk of abandoning the plan. Judging against the range of volatility you can actually withstand is what matters.
Open in comparison calculatorWhy this period and asset
A traditional US stock index and a cryptocurrency differ enormously in risk and volatility. The S&P 500 is a diversified index of 500 companies that rises and falls with the economy and earnings but has trended upward relatively steadily. Bitcoin, a digital asset launched in 2009, has repeatedly cycled between bull runs that multiplied its price and crashes of roughly 70-80% from peak within its short history. Even in the period since 2019 covered here, it saw a strong 2020-2021 rally, a sharp 2022 decline, and a later recovery. The two are sometimes grouped as 'risk assets,' but the magnitude of their swings and the depth of their drawdowns are on entirely different scales.
Caveats & limits
This comparison reflects one specific past period, and results can change greatly with the start or end date. Cryptocurrency in particular is highly volatile with uncertain regulatory and liquidity conditions, so past performance cannot be taken as a guarantee of the future. In real investing, fees, taxes, and exchange rates (for dollar-denominated assets) affect outcomes. This page recommends no purchase or sale; it is educational material comparing the character of two assets.
Data sources & limits
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Which is better, a stock index or Bitcoin?
Neither is always better. Bitcoin produced large excess returns in some stretches but also endured extreme drawdowns, while the S&P 500 moved relatively little. Use the comparison calculator to see return and drawdown side by side and judge against your own risk tolerance.
How different are the risks?
Bitcoin has fallen roughly 70-80% from peak in some cases, while the index was milder even during crashes. Viewing maximum drawdown and recovery period together makes the difference in risk clearly visible.
What should I use as the basis for comparison?
Look beyond the final return to maximum drawdown, time underwater, and recovery period. The more volatile the asset, the more your ability to withstand mid-course declines decides the real outcome.
Related scenarios
📋 结果基于历史数据计算,过去的收益不代表未来的收益。
📋 本服务旨在帮助理解投资、供教育之用,并非投资建议。
⚠️ 各资产的波动性与风险水平不同,仅凭收益率无法判断孰优孰劣。