Nasdaq 100 vs semiconductors over 10 years?
This page compares 10 years of steady monthly investing into a Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and a semiconductor ETF (SMH), using the comparison calculator. It weighs the potential excess return of semiconductor concentration against its deeper drawdowns and theme-concentration risk.
Investment conditions
Asset · Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) vs Semiconductor ETF (SMH)
Method · Comparison
The key is that 'theme/industry concentration' is both a source of excess return and a source of greater risk. SMH can lead the Nasdaq 100 sharply in up-markets, but when the semiconductor cycle turns, its drawdown can be far deeper. QQQ, spread across many sectors, is comparatively milder. In the comparison calculator, review each asset's ending balance together with its maximum drawdown and recovery period. Consider that excess return carries a matching cost in volatility, and that the past decade's chip strength cannot be assumed to persist.
Open in comparison calculatorWhy this period and asset
QQQ tracks the Nasdaq 100 and is diversified across tech and growth stocks, while SMH is concentrated in the semiconductor industry. Over the past decade, surging chip demand amid the cloud and AI boom let SMH lead the Nasdaq 100 in many stretches. But semiconductors are a classic cyclical, economy-sensitive industry, so when demand turns down they tend to suffer far deeper drawdowns than the index. Their high concentration in a few companies also means individual-company issues can heavily sway overall performance.
Caveats & limits
This comparison reflects one specific past period, and results can change with the start or end date. Assets concentrated in a single industry like semiconductors can swing greatly with the cycle, and past performance does not guarantee the future. In real investing, fees, taxes, and exchange rates (for dollar-denominated assets) affect outcomes. This page recommends no purchase; it is educational material comparing character.
Data sources & limits
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Which is better, the Nasdaq 100 or semiconductors?
Neither is always better. Semiconductors led in many stretches over the past decade, but when the cycle turns, drawdowns can be far deeper. Use the comparison calculator to view return and drawdown side by side.
How do the risks differ?
The semiconductor ETF's industry concentration tends to bring higher volatility and maximum drawdown, while the Nasdaq 100 is comparatively milder across sectors. Concentration risk in a few companies is also greater on the semiconductor side.
What should I use as the basis for comparison?
Look beyond the final return to maximum drawdown, time underwater, and recovery period. Bear in mind that theme/industry concentration carries both excess return and greater risk at once.
Related scenarios
📋 结果基于历史数据计算,过去的收益不代表未来的收益。
📋 本服务旨在帮助理解投资、供教育之用,并非投资建议。
⚠️ 各资产的波动性与风险水平不同,仅凭收益率无法判断孰优孰劣。