What if you invested a lump sum in long-term Treasuries at the rate bottom?
This case shows that even long-term Treasuries, seen as a 'safe asset,' can fall sharply.
Investment conditions
Asset · U.S. Long-Term Treasury ETF (TLT)
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 2020-08-04 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-48.4%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
72months
Months in loss: 72
Recovery period
0months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $4,439 (-40.1%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -48.4%
Why this period and asset
August 2020 was near a historic low in interest rates, a phase when long-term Treasury prices were very high. Right afterward, in 2022, sharp rate hikes began in response to surging inflation, and long-term Treasury prices, which move opposite to rates, fell by a large margin. It shows that even 'safe asset' bonds can pass through a worst-case stretch.
Interpreting the result
This shows that even long-term Treasuries, known as a safe asset, can suffer a large drawdown if you enter at the worst time. In the phase of surging rates the maximum drawdown was large, and the stretch underwater and recovery period were long. Contrary to the notion that bonds have small drawdowns, depending on the direction of rates you may have to endure a large drawdown and a long recovery.
Caveats & limits
This result is a hindsight simulation of one specific point and does not guarantee recovery. Long-term Treasuries are sensitive to rate changes and can suffer large losses when rates rise. It ignores taxes, fees, and currency effects. As a dollar asset, the outcome in won terms shifts with the exchange rate. The past does not guarantee the future.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-23
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: 复权收盘价(已反映股息与拆股)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Does buying at the rate bottom always mean failure?
Buying long-term Treasuries at a rate bottom raises the risk of a large drawdown if rates later rise. This case shows that risk; it does not mean every case fails.
Bonds are a safe asset, so won't they recover if I just hold?
Even long-term Treasuries can suffer a large drawdown and a long stretch underwater when rates rise. Generalizing 'it's a safe asset, so just hold and it recovers' is difficult.
Is a lump sum or monthly investing better?
When prices fall on rising rates, monthly investing can lower your average cost. In a falling-rate phase a lump sum can do better, so neither is always superior.
Related scenarios
📋 结果基于历史数据计算,过去的收益不代表未来的收益。
📋 本服务旨在帮助理解投资、供教育之用,并非投资建议。