What if you kept investing in the Nasdaq 100 through the dot-com collapse?
You started investing 300,000 won every month in a Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) in March 2000, right as the dot-com bubble peaked and began to collapse. See what that would have looked like with real data. Because it runs through a brutal crash right after the start, the maximum drawdown and underwater period are especially long.
Investment conditions
Asset · Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)
Method · Recurring monthly investment
Period · 2000-03-01 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $222 / month
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-47.9%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
50months
Months in loss: 69
Recovery period
12months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $70,444 → Final value $863,132 (+1125.3%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -47.9%
Why this period and asset
March 2000 is when the tech-heavy Nasdaq peaked during the dot-com bubble. As the bubble burst, the Nasdaq 100 plunged by roughly 80 percent from its peak, with declines continuing into 2002. Money invested at the top took several years just to recover its principal. This scenario starts investing right at the bubble's peak, so it passes through one of history's steepest tech crashes and the long recovery that followed. It is often cited as a textbook case of starting at nearly the worst possible time.
Interpreting the result
This scenario shows how monthly investing unfolds when the starting point was nearly the worst. Be sure to check the maximum drawdown, underwater period, and recovery time on the results screen. Even starting near a peak, if you keep investing, purchases continue at low prices during the subsequent decline, so your average cost can end up below the initial peak. Because of this, an accumulating account can sometimes recover before the index itself regains its old high. That said, the underwater period can be very long, and recovery is not guaranteed. You can also compare a lump sum at the peak with spreading purchases out over time.
Caveats & limits
In a severe decline like the dot-com bust, the underwater period can be very long, and you may have to endure years below your invested amount. The Nasdaq 100 is heavily weighted toward tech, so it swings sharply with the fortunes of that sector. As a foreign asset, USD/KRW rates affect won-denominated returns, and expense ratios, trading costs, and taxes also lower performance. There is no guarantee that past recoveries will repeat, and this page does not recommend buying any specific asset.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-23
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: 复权收盘价(已反映股息与拆股)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Does monthly investing make sense even starting at the bubble's peak?
Monthly investing keeps buying at low prices during the decline after the start, so your average cost can end up lower than a single purchase at the peak. As a result, an accumulating account can recover before the index regains its old high. Still, the underwater period can be very long, the outcome depends on the market path, and it cannot be assumed in advance.
What if you had stopped investing partway through?
Stopping early in the decline could have meant missing the chance to accumulate at lower prices; conversely, if the drop dragged on, you might have avoided further losses. Which was better depends on how quickly recovery came. Try calculating and comparing continued versus stopped under the same conditions.
If I invest long enough, does even a dot-com-scale crash recover?
In the past the Nasdaq recovered over a long time, but that does not guarantee the future. Recovery can take many years, and enduring that stretch can be hard. Be sure to check the underwater period and recovery time on the results screen and judge for yourself whether the volatility is bearable.
Related scenarios
📋 结果基于历史数据计算,过去的收益不代表未来的收益。
📋 本服务旨在帮助理解投资、供教育之用,并非投资建议。