What if you invested in an oil ETF right before the 2020 crash?
This case exposes the structural risk of commodity ETFs. It shows a very deep drawdown and a recovery that is not guaranteed.
Investment conditions
Asset · Oil ETF (USO)
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 2020-01-06 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-83.8%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
74months
Months in loss: 76
Recovery period
71months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $7,266 (-1.9%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -83.8%
Why this period and asset
Right after January 2020, oil demand collapsed on COVID-19 and prices crashed, and in the process oil futures even went negative, an unusual event. Futures-based ETFs like USO incur structural costs when rolling over expiring futures, so even if oil recovers somewhat, the ETF price may not keep pace.
Interpreting the result
This case layers a worst-timing entry on top of the asset's own structural weakness. The maximum drawdown was very deep, the stretch underwater and recovery period were long, and because of futures roll costs the ETF may not fully recover even when the commodity price does. Beyond enduring a large drawdown and long recovery, you must also consider that recovering your principal may be structurally difficult.
Caveats & limits
This result is a hindsight simulation of one specific point and does not guarantee recovery. Futures-based commodity ETFs can accumulate structural losses from roll costs when held long term. It ignores taxes, fees, and currency effects. As a dollar asset, the outcome in won terms shifts with the exchange rate. The past does not guarantee the future.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-23
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: 复权收盘价(已反映股息与拆股)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Does buying at a peak always mean failure?
Buying at a peak raises drawdown risk. Oil ETFs in particular carry the structural weakness of roll costs, so even if the commodity price recovers, the ETF's recovery is not guaranteed.
Since it recovered in the end, can't you just hold on?
Futures-based ETFs accumulate roll costs the longer you hold, so the ETF price may not keep pace even when the underlying commodity recovers. 'Just hold and it recovers' cannot be generalized.
Is a lump sum or monthly investing better?
In a decline, monthly investing can lower your average cost, but for an asset with structural losses both approaches may struggle to recover principal. Neither is always superior.
Related scenarios
📋 结果基于历史数据计算,过去的收益不代表未来的收益。
📋 本服务旨在帮助理解投资、供教育之用,并非投资建议。