Growth vs value: which wins over 15 years?
This page compares 15 years of steady monthly investing into a US growth ETF (VUG) and a value ETF (VTV), using the comparison calculator. It looks at the backdrop to growth's recent lead and the uncertainty of style rotation.
Investment conditions
Asset · US Growth ETF (VUG) vs Value ETF (VTV)
Method · Comparison
The key is that growth's recent lead cannot be assumed to persist. Style leadership has flipped with the rate and economic environment, and it is hard to predict in advance. Growth had larger gains in up-markets but tends to fall more deeply when rates rise; value moves more gently but can lag in strong bull markets. In the comparison calculator, review each style's ending balance together with its maximum drawdown and recovery period. The useful framing is not that one style is 'superior' but that they differ in character.
Open in comparison calculatorWhy this period and asset
Growth (VUG) centers on companies expected to grow revenue and earnings quickly, with heavy weight in technology and platform firms. Value (VTV) centers on companies priced relatively low against earnings, weighted toward traditional sectors like financials, industrials, and energy. Over the past 15 years, low rates and Big Tech growth helped growth stocks lead value in many stretches. Historically, though, style leadership has rotated: in some years value led, and in a phase like 2022, when rates surged, growth fell comparatively hard.
Caveats & limits
This comparison reflects one specific past period, and which style leads can change with the start or end date. Given how styles rotate, past performance does not guarantee the future. In real investing, fees, taxes, and exchange rates (for dollar-denominated assets) affect outcomes. This page recommends no purchase; it is educational material comparing character.
Data sources & limits
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Which is better, growth or value?
Neither is always better. Growth led in many stretches over the past 15 years, but historically the two styles have swapped leadership with rates and the economy. Use the comparison calculator to view return and drawdown side by side.
How do the risks differ?
Growth tends to fall harder when rates rise or expectations reset, while value moves more gently but can lag in bull markets. Comparing maximum drawdown and recovery period brings the difference into view.
What should I use as the basis for comparison?
Look beyond the final return to maximum drawdown, time underwater, recovery period, and the possibility of style rotation. Testing several periods reduces judgments skewed to one window.
Related scenarios
📋 结果基于历史数据计算,过去的收益不代表未来的收益。
📋 本服务旨在帮助理解投资、供教育之用,并非投资建议。
⚠️ 各资产的波动性与风险水平不同,仅凭收益率无法判断孰优孰劣。