Gold vs S&P 500: which wins over 20 years?
This page compares 20 years of steady monthly investing into a gold ETF (GLD) and an S&P 500 ETF (SPY), using the comparison calculator. Stretching beyond 15 years to include the financial crisis and COVID, it places gold's defense in crises alongside the long-run path of stocks.
Investment conditions
Asset · Gold ETF (GLD) vs S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Method · Comparison
The key is that you cannot judge which is 'better' from the final return alone. The two differ in volatility and the nature of their drawdowns. Stocks delivered larger long-term gains but suffered deep declines during crashes; gold rose more gradually but sometimes cushioned specific crisis periods. Stretching to 20 years captures both major crises and the recoveries after them, letting you see both 'what held up in a crisis' and 'what grew wealth over the long run.' In the comparison calculator, review each asset's ending balance together with its maximum drawdown and recovery period. You can also consider holding both as a way to diversify.
Open in comparison calculatorWhy this period and asset
Gold and stocks are very different in character. The S&P 500 is a diversified index of 500 leading US companies, a 'growth asset' that has trended upward over time as corporate earnings grow. Gold is a physical asset that pays no interest or dividends and is often treated as a 'safe haven' store of value during inflation or financial stress. Starting in 2006, this 20-year window includes two major crises: the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID crash. In such crisis phases, gold showed relative resilience or drew attention at times, while in the recoveries that followed, stocks often rose strongly. In other words, neither asset always won—leadership rotated with the environment.
Caveats & limits
This comparison reflects one specific past period; shifting the start or end date even slightly can change which leads. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Gold pays no interest or dividends and depends purely on price movement, and in real investing, trading fees, taxes, and currency movements (returns on dollar-denominated assets depend on the exchange rate) all affect outcomes. This page recommends no purchase; it is educational material comparing the character of two assets.
Data sources & limits
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Which is better, gold or stocks?
Neither is always better. Within 20 years there were crisis phases where gold showed defense and recoveries where stocks rose strongly. Use the comparison calculator to weigh return against drawdown directly.
How do the risks differ?
Stocks are sensitive to corporate earnings and the cycle, so volatility and maximum drawdown tend to be larger. Gold, with no interest or dividends, is driven by supply-demand, real rates, and the dollar. The type of risk differs, so review maximum drawdown and recovery period together.
What should I use as the basis for comparison?
Don't look at the final return alone. Also check maximum drawdown, time underwater, and recovery period. Over a long window like 20 years, it matters to see both what held up in crises and what grew most in recoveries.
Related scenarios
📋 结果基于历史数据计算,过去的收益不代表未来的收益。
📋 本服务旨在帮助理解投资、供教育之用,并非投资建议。
⚠️ 各资产的波动性与风险水平不同,仅凭收益率无法判断孰优孰劣。