Bonds vs gold over 15 years? (safe-haven face-off)
This page compares 15 years of steady monthly investing into a US aggregate bond ETF (AGG) and a gold ETF (GLD), using the comparison calculator. Placing the 2022 bond slump alongside gold's path, it shows how relative the idea of 'safety' really is.
Investment conditions
Asset · US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) vs Gold ETF (GLD)
Method · Comparison
The key is that the label 'safe haven' is not absolute. Bonds hinge heavily on the direction of rates, so when rates surge, even aggregate bonds can suffer deeper drawdowns than expected. Gold, with no interest or dividends, relies purely on price movement and sometimes shows defense in crises—but not always. In the comparison calculator, review each asset's ending balance together with its maximum drawdown and recovery period. The purpose here is to see in the data—especially in a stretch like 2022 when bonds wobbled—which asset actually provided safety.
Open in comparison calculatorWhy this period and asset
Bonds and gold are often grouped as 'safe havens,' but their character differs. AGG is an aggregate bond ETF holding a broad mix of US Treasuries and corporate bonds; it earns coupon income and tends to rise in price when rates fall. Gold is a physical asset with no interest or dividends, drawing attention as a store of value during inflation or financial stress. Over the past 15 years, bonds generally moved gently, but in 2022 rapid rate hikes to fight inflation drove bond prices down sharply. In the same stretch, gold at times looked relatively strong. The core fact of this window is that bonds—assumed 'safe'—suffered a large drawdown in a particular phase.
Caveats & limits
This comparison reflects one specific past period, and results can change with the start or end date. Bonds change character with the rate environment, and gold is sensitive to supply-demand, real rates, and the dollar. Past performance does not guarantee the future, and in real investing, fees, taxes, and exchange rates (for dollar-denominated assets) affect outcomes. This page recommends no purchase; it is educational material comparing character.
Data sources & limits
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Which is safer, bonds or gold?
Neither is always safer. Bonds were gentle when rates were stable but fell hard when rates surged, as in 2022; gold showed defense in some crises but swung widely. Use the comparison calculator to view drawdown and recovery period side by side.
Can bonds have large drawdowns too?
Yes. Especially for longer-maturity bonds, prices can drop sharply when rates surge. 2022 is a prime example, and the notion of 'bonds = always safe' deserves reconsideration.
What should I use as the basis for comparison?
Don't look only at the final return; also review maximum drawdown, time underwater, and recovery period. Including phases where rates moved sharply, it matters to see which asset wobbled in which environment.
Related scenarios
📋 结果基于历史数据计算,过去的收益不代表未来的收益。
📋 本服务旨在帮助理解投资、供教育之用,并非投资建议。
⚠️ 各资产的波动性与风险水平不同,仅凭收益率无法判断孰优孰劣。