Dot-com Bubble Burst
As the internet bubble burst, the NASDAQ plunged 78%. The S&P 500 also fell by nearly half.
发生了什么
In the late 1990s, the arrival of the internet ushered in an era of the "new economy." Dot-com companies were awarded astronomical valuations even without earnings, and it was common for a stock to surge hundreds of percent on its first day of trading after an IPO. By the end of 1999, the NASDAQ index had risen 86% in a single year.
But starting in March 2000, the bubble began to deflate. Companies that had been valued on "clicks" without a revenue model went bankrupt one by one as they burned through cash. Firms such as Pets.com, Webvan, and boo.com, which had raised hundreds of billions of won, disappeared.
The NASDAQ Composite plunged 78.4% from its March 2000 peak of 5,048 points to 1,114 points in October 2002. The S&P 500 fell -49.1% and took 84 months (about 7 years) to recover. The NASDAQ took a full 15 years (until 2015) to recover its 2000 peak. Investors who kept up recurring investing during this period bought large quantities of shares at the lows and greatly benefited from the big tech rally of the 2010s that followed.
各资产受影响情况
| 资产 | 自高点回撤 | 下跌持续时间 | 恢复 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -49.1% | 31 months | Recovered principal in May 2007 (about 7 years) |
| NASDAQ | -78.4% | 31 months | Did not recover its 2000 peak until 2015 (about 15 years) |
| Gold | +10% (gain) | - | Rose modestly on safe-haven demand during the equity plunge |
| US 10-Year Treasury | Yield fell (price rose) | - | Treasury demand increased on safe-haven preference |
此事件留下的教训
- 1Based on the NASDAQ, it took 15 years to recover the peak. The phrase "it always recovers eventually" varies by index and by period.
- 2Investing a lump sum at the bubble peak (March 2000) meant waiting 15 years, but maintaining recurring investing throughout the bubble captured the dollar-cost-averaging benefit during the crash.
- 3Investing in individual dot-com stocks could have meant a permanent loss rather than a 15-year wait. This case illustrates the difference between an index (ETF) and individual stocks.
- 4Excessive optimism about overvalued companies with no revenue model is a historically recurring pattern.
- 5The outcomes of those who stopped investing during the crash and those who kept going diverged sharply 10 years later.
如果当时买入了会怎样?
用过去数据亲自模拟。结果为估算值且为税前。
If you had invested a lump sum at the bubble peak
A lump-sum investment in an S&P 500 ETF in March 2000 → a 7-year wait. Check it yourself in the lump-sum simulator.
打开模拟器 →If you had kept up recurring investing throughout the crash
Investing a fixed amount in the S&P 500 every month from 2000 → a large buy-the-dip effect. Compare it in the recurring-investing simulator.
打开模拟器 →View the full crisis archive
Compare with other historical crashes beyond the dot-com bubble.
打开模拟器 →常见问题
问. Why did the NASDAQ take so much longer than the S&P 500?
The S&P 500 is made up of diverse sectors (financials, consumer, energy, etc.), so its weighting in tech stocks was small. The NASDAQ, by contrast, is composed mainly of tech stocks and took the full brunt of the dot-com bust. In addition, a significant portion of the companies in the NASDAQ in 2000 actually ceased to exist.
问. If I had kept up recurring investing back then, when would it have turned a profit?
If you had started recurring investing every month from January 2000, you would have bought large quantities of shares cheaply at the low (October 2002). As the market recovered afterward, the point at which you recovered your principal comes much sooner than with a lump sum. The exact timing depends on the amount and period; check it in the recurring-investing simulator.
问. Could a bubble like this happen again today?
History tends to repeat. In 2021, similar patterns appeared in some tech stocks, meme stocks, and cryptocurrencies. However, this service does not provide predictions of future markets. No one can give a definitive answer to this question.
📊 数据来源: Price data sources: S&P Global, Nasdaq Inc. Based on adjusted close prices. Simple price basis excluding dividend reinvestment. The NASDAQ peak-recovery point (2015) was cross-checked against multiple sources.
📋 结果基于历史数据计算,过去的收益不代表未来的收益。
📋 本服务旨在帮助理解投资、供教育之用,并非投资建议。