What if you invested monthly in a Small-cap ETF (IJR) for 20 years?
This calculates the result of investing a fixed amount monthly into IJR, which tracks the S&P SmallCap 600, over 20 years using actual price data. It shows how the small-cap (size) premium actually played out, alongside maximum drawdown and time underwater.
Investment conditions
Asset · IJR (US Small-cap ETF)
Method · Recurring monthly investment
Period · 2006-07-01 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $222 / month
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-42.4%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
25months
Months in loss: 30
Recovery period
8months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $53,556 → Final value $187,840 (+250.7%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -42.4%
Why this period and asset
The size factor stems from the observation that small caps, though riskier, historically earned more than large caps over the long run, and it was formalized as the size factor in the Fama-French three-factor model. IJR tracks the S&P SmallCap 600. This 20-year window (2006-2026) spans the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 COVID crash, and the 2022 correction. Small caps fell far deeper than large caps in crises and sometimes rebounded strongly early in recoveries, yet they trailed large caps for long stretches in recent years.
Interpreting the result
Investing the same amount each month buys more shares when prices are low and fewer when they are high. A small-cap premium may exist in theory, but in practice it often failed to appear or small caps trailed large caps for extended periods. With lower liquidity and higher economic sensitivity, small caps can show deeper maximum drawdowns and longer loss and recovery periods. The key is to read the maximum drawdown, time underwater, and recovery period next to the large-cap index and test the 'small caps = higher returns' notion for yourself.
Caveats & limits
The small-cap premium is a theoretical expectation realized only in certain periods, and in many recent years large caps led. Small caps can carry larger volatility, drawdowns, and loss periods than large caps. Expense ratios, trading fees, USD/KRW exchange rates, and dividend/capital-gains taxes also affect the outcome. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and this page does not recommend buying any specific security.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-23
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: 調整後終値(配当・株式分割を反映)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
What are the size and value factors?
The size factor selects by company size (market cap) and the value factor by how cheaply a stock is priced. The Fama-French size factor, showing small caps earned long-run excess returns, is a key basis.
Do small caps always beat large caps?
No. A premium may exist in theory, but in practice it often did not materialize or small caps trailed large caps for long periods, including many recent years.
What are the risks of this strategy?
Deep drawdowns and long loss periods from low liquidity and high economic sensitivity, plus an unrealized size premium, are the main ones. Recovery can lengthen greatly in a crisis, and fees and FX reduce returns.
Related scenarios
📋 結果は過去のデータに基づくものです。過去のリターンは将来のリターンを保証しません。
📋 本サービスは投資アドバイスではなく、投資を理解するための教育目的で提供されています。