What if you invested monthly in a Financials sector ETF (XLF) for 15 years?
This scenario invests a fixed USD amount every month in a U.S. financials sector ETF (XLF) from July 2011 to July 2026 — 15 years of dollar-cost averaging. It compares this rate- and cycle-sensitive sector's performance and drawdowns against the S&P 500.
Investment conditions
Asset · Financials sector ETF (XLF)
Method · Recurring monthly investment
Period · 2011-07-01 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $222 / month
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-42.5%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
5months
Months in loss: 6
Recovery period
9months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $40,222 → Final value $112,393 (+179.4%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -42.5%
Why this period and asset
XLF holds large banks, insurers, and asset managers. The sector's defining trauma was the 2008 global financial crisis, after which it recovered amid tighter regulation and low rates. The 2011-2026 window included rate-hiking and cutting phases, the 2020 COVID shock, and 2023 regional-bank stress, all of which moved financial stocks.
Interpreting the result
Financials is a cyclical sector sensitive to interest rates and the economy. Rising rates can help bank margins, but recessions or credit stress trigger sharp declines. Fifteen years of monthly buying spreads entry points, yet the sector's characteristic maximum drawdown — and the resulting loss and recovery periods — remain. Versus the S&P 500 it can lead in expansions and fall far behind during credit crises.
Caveats & limits
Financials is especially exposed to systemic risk (credit and liquidity crises), so drawdowns can be abrupt. Past recovery does not guarantee the future. Expense ratios, commissions, taxes, and currency moves affect results, and this scenario does not recommend buying the financials sector.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-23
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: 調整後終値(配当・株式分割を反映)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Are banks good when rates rise?
Higher rates can help net interest margins, but it is not guaranteed. Sharp rate moves or credit stress can shake financial stocks.
What if another 2008 happens?
Financials is vulnerable to systemic risk and has a history of very deep maximum drawdowns in crises, with long loss and recovery periods.
Is it better than the S&P 500?
It depends on the window. It can lead in expansions but underperform sharply during credit crises.
Related scenarios
📋 結果は過去のデータに基づくものです。過去のリターンは将来のリターンを保証しません。
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