What if you started S&P 500 DCA around the delayed Tokyo Olympics?
This uses real data to show what would have happened if you had invested 300,000 won a month into the S&P 500 (SPY) starting around July 23, 2021, when the COVID-delayed Tokyo Olympics opened. It is a relatively short DCA case that met the 2022 bear market right after starting.
⚠️ Know the risk first
This start point was just before the 2022 bear market, so the early loss period where value stayed below what you put in was pronounced. Always review the maximum drawdown and loss periods.
What happened that day
On July 23, 2021, the 2020 Tokyo Olympics — postponed a year for the first time ever due to COVID — finally opened. Here it is used only as an easy-to-remember DCA start, a short DCA case that met the 2022 bear market right after starting.
Why this date
A widely remembered public milestone is used as the reference for the 'DCA start date.' It does not mean the opening caused index moves — it is simply an easy-to-remember date.
Investment conditions
Asset · S&P 500 ETF (SPY) · 300,000 won monthly from July 2021
Method · Recurring monthly investment
Period · 2021-07-23 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $222 / month
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-15.9%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
12months
Months in loss: 15
Recovery period
1months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $13,556 → Final value $21,132 (+55.9%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -15.9%
Why this period and asset
July 23, 2021 is the day the 2020 Tokyo Olympics — postponed a year for the first time ever due to COVID — finally opened. Using this easy-to-remember moment as the start, we assume monthly DCA into the S&P 500. But this start point was just before the 2022 inflation/rate-hike bear market hit, so from early in the DCA you pass through a hard stretch where value stays below what you put in for a considerable time.
Interpreting the result
This case shows what 'DCA that met a bear market right after starting' was like. A lump sum would have been fully trapped in the early decline, but DCA buys more units with the same 300,000 won during the downturn, lowering your average cost. In the metrics below, look at total invested, the final value, and the return (XIRR), but always also check the early maximum drawdown and loss period. A bad start does not necessarily end in failure, but it required time to endure.
Caveats & limits
The Tokyo Olympics opening is only an 'easy-to-remember date,' not a cause of index moves. This case has a relatively short DCA horizon and met a bear market right after starting, so the early loss period is pronounced. Even index DCA has loss periods and does not guarantee the future. SPY is a U.S. index, so FX matters in reality, but this calculation excludes exchange rates, fees, and taxes (pre-tax). Always review the maximum drawdown and loss periods.
Event fact sources
- ESPN, 'Tokyo Olympics opening ceremony rescheduled for July 23, 2021'
- Britannica, 'Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games' (opening 2021-07-23)
Requested date vs actual trading date
If the date is a holiday, contributions start from the next trading day. The 'effective trading date' below is the start date actually used.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-28
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
If a bear market hits right after starting, is DCA a failure?
Not necessarily. Investing during a downturn buys more units for the same amount, lowering your average cost, and those units help when recovery comes. But you must endure the stretch where value stays below what you put in. Check the maximum drawdown and loss period below.
Why use the Tokyo Olympics as the start?
It uses a widely remembered public milestone as the reference for 'when you started DCA.' It does not mean the opening ceremony caused index moves — it is just an easy-to-remember date.
How does a shorter DCA horizon change the result?
The shorter the horizon, the less time compounding has, and the more the market path near your start weighs on the result. This case met a bear market right after starting, so the early loss period is pronounced; comparing with earlier-start DCA cases shows the difference.
Are FX and taxes reflected?
No. SPY is a U.S. index, so FX matters in reality, but this calculation excludes exchange rates, fees, and taxes (pre-tax). KRW conversion and taxes would additionally affect actual results.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.