What if you started a monthly S&P 500 DCA on Korea's first COVID case?
This uses real data to show what would have happened if, starting January 20, 2020 — the day Korea confirmed its first COVID-19 case — you had invested a fixed amount each month into the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). We honestly examine the seemingly worst-possible start that walked straight into the COVID crash.
⚠️ Know the risk first
Right after starting, the COVID crash pushed the value well below the amount contributed. The final return only holds on the hindsight that the index later recovered, which could not be known in advance.
What happened that day
On January 20, 2020, South Korea confirmed its first COVID-19 case; the U.S. announced its first case the same day. Over February–March, global markets suffered the COVID crash, losing roughly a third of their value in about a month.
Why this date
The first-case date is used as a symbolic milestone for 'what if you started contributing at the most ominous moment,' a good starting point to see how DCA passes through a crash.
Investment conditions
Asset · S&P 500 ETF (SPY) · monthly contributions from the first COVID case
Method · Recurring monthly investment
Period · 2020-01-20 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $222 / month
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-28.3%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
4months
Months in loss: 4
Recovery period
1months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $17,556 → Final value $30,715 (+75.0%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -28.3%
Why this period and asset
January 20, 2020 was the day South Korea confirmed its first COVID-19 case — and, coincidentally, the same day the United States confirmed its first case. Starting to contribute on this date means walking straight into the February–March 2020 COVID crash barely a month later, when the S&P 500 lost roughly a third of its value in about a month. It felt like 'getting trapped the moment you started.' But dollar-cost averaging buys more units at cheaper prices during a crash — the decisive difference from a lump sum.
Interpreting the result
The point of this case is the contrast: a start that looked terrifying was not necessarily bad for a monthly investor. Review the final value and annualized return (XIRR) versus total contributed in the metrics below, and note that because DCA averages your entry price across months, the cheap purchases during the early crash contributed to the later recovery. Putting the same money in all at once on day one would have felt the early drawdown far more sharply — use the 'lump-sum vs monthly' link to compare. Still, this only holds on the hindsight fact that the index recovered, and recovery can never be known in advance.
Caveats & limits
DCA does not erase loss periods. For a stretch right after starting, the portfolio value sat well below the money contributed, and stopping out of fear would have changed the result. As an index ETF, survivorship bias is smaller than for a single stock, but this still leans on the fact that the U.S. market recovered. Figures use adjusted close and exclude exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes — pre-tax. Always review the maximum drawdown and loss periods. This is past data only and does not guarantee the future.
Event fact sources
- Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) — first COVID-19 case (2020-01-20)
- CSIS Beyond Parallel — A Timeline of South Korea's Response to COVID-19
Requested date vs actual trading date
Because January 20 was a U.S. holiday (MLK Day), the first buy fills on the next trading day's close. The 'effective trading date' below is the date actually used.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-28
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Why use January 20, 2020 as the start date?
That is the day Korea (and the U.S.) confirmed their first COVID-19 case. It symbolically captures 'what if you started at the most ominous moment.' Because January 20 was a U.S. market holiday (Martin Luther King Day), the actual calculation fills on the next trading day's close.
The COVID crash hit right after starting — wasn't that a loss?
For several months after starting, the portfolio value was well below the amount contributed. But DCA buys more units for the same monthly amount during a crash, so those cheap purchases contributed once markets recovered. Don't look only at the final return — review the maximum drawdown and loss periods below.
How is this different from a lump sum on day one?
A lump sum on day one would have taken the full COVID drawdown on the entire principal. DCA spreads entry across months, reducing the risk of putting everything in at a peak, but in a bull market it compounds over less time than an early lump sum. Compare directly via the 'lump-sum vs monthly' link.
Are exchange rates and taxes reflected?
No. Exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax. In real U.S. stock/ETF investing, USD/KRW moves and taxes would additionally affect results. This page only shows historical data and recommends no product.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.