What if you invested monthly in an Industrials sector ETF (XLI) for 15 years?
This scenario invests a fixed USD amount every month in a U.S. industrials sector ETF (XLI) from July 2011 to July 2026 — 15 years of dollar-cost averaging. It compares this bellwether cyclical sector's performance and drawdowns against the S&P 500.
Investment conditions
Asset · Industrials sector ETF (XLI)
Method · Recurring monthly investment
Period · 2011-07-01 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $222 / month
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-42.0%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
4months
Months in loss: 5
Recovery period
5months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $40,222 → Final value $129,809 (+222.7%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -42.0%
Why this period and asset
XLI holds machinery, aerospace, transport, and construction companies tied closely to the real economy — a classic cyclical sector ETF. The 2011-2026 window includes strength in expansions, the 2020 COVID-lockdown collapse in transport and airlines, and the subsequent supply-chain and capital-spending recovery.
Interpreting the result
Industrials is a textbook cyclical sector — strong in expansions, weak in recessions. Fifteen years of monthly buying spreads entry points, but in a downturn the sector's maximum drawdown can run deep. Deeper drawdowns mean longer loss and recovery periods. Versus the S&P 500 it can lead in recoveries and expansions and lag in recessions — a cyclical spread.
Caveats & limits
Industrials is sensitive to the economy, rates, commodities, and global demand, so drawdowns are large in downturns. Past recovery does not guarantee the future. Expense ratios, commissions, taxes, and currency moves affect results, and this scenario does not recommend buying the industrials sector.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-23
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
How closely does industrials track the economy?
Very closely — strong in expansions, weak in recessions. That cyclicality means deep maximum drawdowns during downturns.
Does it always rise when the economy improves?
Not necessarily. It tended to be strong in recoveries, but depending on your entry and the next cycle you can still endure a loss period.
What if I hold only industrials instead of the S&P 500?
This service recommends no allocation. Concentrating in one cyclical sector exposes you fully to economic risk.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.