What if you invested monthly in a Consumer-discretionary sector ETF (XLY) for 15 years?
This scenario invests a fixed USD amount every month in a U.S. consumer-discretionary sector ETF (XLY) from July 2011 to July 2026 — 15 years of dollar-cost averaging. It compares this consumption-sensitive sector's performance and drawdowns against the S&P 500.
Investment conditions
Asset · Consumer-discretionary sector ETF (XLY)
Method · Recurring monthly investment
Period · 2011-07-01 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $222 / month
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-37.1%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
3months
Months in loss: 3
Recovery period
21months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $40,222 → Final value $113,751 (+182.8%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -37.1%
Why this period and asset
XLY holds autos, apparel, travel, and online-retail companies — things consumers buy when they have spare money — and it is heavily weighted in large growth names like Amazon and Tesla. The 2011-2026 window includes consumption expansion and e-commerce growth, the early-2020 COVID crash and sharp rebound, and 2022 fears of a consumer slowdown.
Interpreting the result
Consumer discretionary is a cyclical sector sensitive to household spending power. It is strong when the economy and sentiment are good, but spending here is cut first in downturns, so drawdowns run large. Fifteen years of monthly buying spreads entry points, yet the sector's maximum drawdown, loss period, and recovery period remain. Heavy weighting in a few large growth names makes it more volatile than the index. Versus the S&P 500 it can lead in consumption booms and lag in slowdowns.
Caveats & limits
Consumer discretionary is sensitive to sentiment, rates, and employment, and heavy weighting in a few names adds concentration risk. Past rebounds do not guarantee the future. Expense ratios, commissions, taxes, and currency moves affect results, and this scenario does not recommend buying any sector.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-23
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
How is discretionary different from staples?
Staples are bought regardless of the economy; discretionary items are bought when people have spare money, so they are cut first in recessions and drop harder.
Why is it more volatile than the index?
It is heavily weighted in a few large growth names like Amazon and Tesla, so it swings with those stocks.
Does monthly investing remove recession risk?
It spreads entry points, but it cannot remove the sector's maximum drawdown and loss period.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.