What if you bought the S&P 500 on Korea's first COVID case?
On January 20, 2020 — the day Korea confirmed its first COVID-19 case — what if you had put a lump sum into an S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and held it until now? This shows the actual historical result.
⚠️ Know the risk first
Warning: entering on this date meant taking the COVID crash (~34% from peak) head-on right away. The maximum drawdown and loss period below reflect that plunge directly.
What happened that day
On January 20, 2020, Korea officially confirmed its first COVID-19 case. As the pandemic spread worldwide, U.S. stocks fell about 34% from peak at record speed in February–March 2020.
Why this date
We use the day the bad news 'first hit the headlines' as the assumed buy date. The market barely reacted that day and the real crash began a month later — that gap is the teaching point.
Investment conditions
Asset · S&P 500 ETF (SPY) · lump-sum, then held long-term
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 2020-01-20 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-33.7%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
7months
Months in loss: 8
Recovery period
15months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $18,293 (+146.9%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -33.7%
Why this period and asset
January 20, 2020 was the day Korea confirmed its first COVID-19 case. At the time the market barely reacted, and the index even set fresh record highs days later. But roughly a month on, from late February, pandemic fear spread worldwide and U.S. stocks lost about a third of their value from peak in under a month — one of the fastest crashes on record. This is the path of an investor who entered on 'the day the bad news first appeared but the market hadn't yet reacted.'
Interpreting the result
After the first-case date the market briefly climbed, then plunged in the COVID crash, and recovered quickly alongside massive stimulus. The final value may look benign, but be sure to also read the maximum drawdown and the loss period when your principal was underwater right after entry. If you had sold during that plunge, the outcome would be entirely different.
Caveats & limits
Figures use adjusted close (dividends and splits reflected) and exclude exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes. This is only the result for one asset over one past period and does not guarantee the future; a rapid recovery like COVID's does not always repeat.
Event fact sources
- Korea Disease Control & Prevention Agency / Ministry of Health: first COVID-19 case 2020-01-20
- Reuters/AP: March 2020 S&P 500 COVID crash (~34% from peak)
Requested date vs actual trading date
2020-01-20 is a trading day. If an event date is a market holiday, we fill at the next trading day's close. The requested date and actual fill date may differ.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-25
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: 調整後終値(配当・株式分割を反映)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Why use the first-case date as the buy date?
To show what entering 'the day the bad news first hit the headlines' would have looked like. In reality the market barely moved that day; the crash came a month later.
How far did it fall right after entry?
In the Feb–Mar 2020 COVID crash, U.S. stocks fell about 34% from peak. The maximum drawdown and loss-period metrics below carry that mark.
Would buying at the scariest point (the March bottom) have differed?
Yes. Comparing this with the 'bought at the COVID bottom (2020-03-23)' scenario shows how much entry timing changes the result — though no one can know the bottom in advance.
Are FX and taxes reflected?
No. Exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes are not reflected. In real U.S.-stock investing, USD/KRW movements add another layer to your result.
Does this page recommend buying now?
No. It only shows one entry point's path using historical data and recommends no buying timing.
Related scenarios
- What if you bought the S&P 500 at the COVID bottom (March 2020)?
- What if you bought the S&P 500 on the day Lehman collapsed (Sep 15, 2008)?
- What if you invested at the 2008 financial-crisis peak?
- Lump-sum vs monthly investing: which came out ahead?
- What if you invested $220 monthly in the S&P 500 for 10 years?
📋 結果は過去のデータに基づくものです。過去のリターンは将来のリターンを保証しません。
📋 本サービスは投資アドバイスではなく、投資を理解するための教育目的で提供されています。