Value vs growth: which wins over 20 years?
This page compares 20 years of steady monthly investing into a US value ETF (VTV) and a growth ETF (VUG), using the comparison calculator. Stretching beyond the 15-year comparison, it examines how style leadership has rotated.
Investment conditions
Asset · US Value ETF (VTV) vs Growth ETF (VUG)
Method · Comparison
The key is that stretching to 20 years does not simplify the conclusion. Even if the full 20-year result tilts one way, it hides several stretches that moved the opposite direction. Growth had larger gains in up-markets but tends to fall more deeply when rates rise; value moves more gently but can lag in strong bull markets. In the comparison calculator, review each style's ending balance together with its maximum drawdown and recovery period. The useful framing is not that one style is 'superior' but that each works differently depending on the environment.
Open in comparison calculatorWhy this period and asset
Value (VTV) centers on companies priced relatively low against earnings, weighted toward traditional sectors like financials, industrials, and energy; growth (VUG) is weighted toward technology and platform firms expected to grow revenue and earnings quickly. Starting in 2006, this 20-year window passes through the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent low-rate, Big Tech growth phase. Over the full 20 years, growth led in many stretches, but in detail, style leadership 'rotated' several times. In some periods value led with the rate and economic backdrop, and in a phase like 2022, when rates surged, growth fell comparatively hard.
Caveats & limits
This comparison reflects one specific past period, and which side leads can change greatly with the start or end date. Given how styles rotate, past performance does not guarantee the future. In real investing, fees, taxes, and exchange rates (for dollar-denominated assets) affect outcomes. This page recommends no purchase; it is educational material comparing character.
Data sources & limits
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Over 20 years, which is better, value or growth?
Neither is always better. Growth led in many stretches over the full 20 years, but value led in several periods within it. Use the comparison calculator to view return and drawdown side by side.
Why does style leadership rotate?
The rate and economic environment act differently on the two styles. When rates are low and growth expectations high, growth tends to have the edge; when rates rise or the economy recovers, value tends to. This is hard to predict in advance.
What should I use as the basis for comparison?
Look beyond the final return to maximum drawdown, time underwater, recovery period, and the possibility of style rotation. Testing several periods reduces judgments skewed to one window.
Related scenarios
📋 結果は過去のデータに基づくものです。過去のリターンは将来のリターンを保証しません。
📋 本サービスは投資アドバイスではなく、投資を理解するための教育目的で提供されています。
⚠️ 資産ごとにボラティリティやリスク水準が異なるため、リターンだけでどちらが優れているかは判断できません。