What if you invested monthly in a value ETF (VTV) for 10 years?
VTV holds relatively undervalued large US value stocks. The past 10 years favored growth stocks, so the value style's fortunes diverged sharply.
Investment conditions
Asset · Value ETF (VTV)
Method · Recurring monthly investment
Period · 2016-07-01 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $222 / month
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-35.5%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
2months
Months in loss: 3
Recovery period
4months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $26,889 → Final value $53,819 (+100.2%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -35.5%
Why this period and asset
The decade after July 2016 is seen as growth-led in style terms. Amid low rates and tech strength, value lagged growth for long stretches, though value- and dividend-leaning names held up relatively better after the 2020 pandemic crash rebound and during the 2022 rate-hike phase. VTV centers on large value firms with dividends and steady earnings, aiming for gradual moves and relatively lower volatility rather than sharp spikes.
Interpreting the result
Over a 10-year span, compounding adds force, but style rotation heavily shaped the outcome. Value tends to be less volatile than growth, yet this window still held large maximum drawdowns in 2020 and 2022 and stretches below invested cost. Buying a fixed amount each month accumulated more units when value was out of favor and pressured, and those units added force in the recovery. Still, these 10 years were a growth-favoring phase, so a single result says little about value's long-run character.
Caveats & limits
This is a simplified simulation that ignores taxes, trading fees, and currency effects. VTV has a dividend component, so dividend taxes and reinvestment affect real returns but are not separately modeled here. Past performance does not guarantee future returns and depends on one specific start date. Figures follow USD-based prices; returns in another currency depend on exchange rates.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-23
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: 調整後終値(配当・株式分割を反映)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Are value stocks safer than growth stocks?
They tend to be relatively less volatile, but that does not mean safe. Even in these 10 years, value stocks suffered large drawdowns and time-underwater.
Why did value lag growth over the past decade?
In phases of low rates and tech strength, growth tended to lead. But style leadership rotates over time, so it is not always the case.
Are VTV's dividends included in this calculation?
It is based on price data and does not separately model dividend payments, reinvestment, or dividend taxes. Value stocks carry dividends, so dividends can be a meaningful share of the true total return.
Related scenarios
📋 結果は過去のデータに基づくものです。過去のリターンは将来のリターンを保証しません。
📋 本サービスは投資アドバイスではなく、投資を理解するための教育目的で提供されています。