Nasdaq 100 vs S&P 500: which wins over 20 years?
This page compares 20 years of steady monthly investing into a Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) versus an S&P 500 ETF (SPY), using the comparison calculator. It shows how the gap and drawdowns shift when the horizon stretches from 10 years to 20.
Investment conditions
Asset · Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) vs S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Method · Comparison
The key is that a longer horizon does not simplify the conclusion. With its concentration in growth stocks, the Nasdaq 100 can lead the index sharply in up-markets but tends to suffer deeper drawdowns in declines. The 20-year window contains both sides. In the comparison calculator, check not only each index's ending balance but also each one's maximum drawdown and recovery period. A higher final return does not necessarily mean the 'better choice'—whether you could withstand the swings along the way shapes the real experience.
Open in comparison calculatorWhy this period and asset
The Nasdaq 100 comprises 100 large Nasdaq-listed companies with a very high weighting in technology and growth stocks. The S&P 500 spans 500 leading US firms across a broader mix of industries. The past decade or so, dominated by Big Tech, often saw the Nasdaq 100 outpace the index—but the 2006 start of this scenario is different. After the 2000 dot-com bust, the Nasdaq went through a long recovery and then passed through the 2008 financial crisis. Extending to 20 years captures both the phase when tech collapsed and the strong rebound that followed, revealing how much the picture depends on where you cut the period.
Caveats & limits
This comparison reflects one specific past period, and changing the start or end date can flip which one leads. Past performance does not guarantee the future. In real investing, fees, taxes, and exchange rates (for dollar-denominated assets) affect outcomes. This page recommends no purchase; it is educational material comparing character.
Data sources & limits
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Which is better, the Nasdaq 100 or the S&P 500?
Neither is always better. The Nasdaq 100, heavier in growth stocks, can lead in up-markets but tends to have deeper drawdowns in declines. Use the comparison calculator to view return and drawdown side by side.
How do the risks differ?
The Nasdaq 100's concentration in tech and growth tends to bring higher volatility and larger maximum drawdown, while the broader S&P 500 is comparatively milder. The 20-year window also includes major drawdowns like the dot-com bust and the financial crisis.
What should I use as the basis for comparison?
Don't look only at the final return; also review maximum drawdown, time underwater, and recovery period. Because the result depends on where you cut the period, it helps to test several different windows.
Related scenarios
📋 結果は過去のデータに基づくものです。過去のリターンは将来のリターンを保証しません。
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⚠️ 資産ごとにボラティリティやリスク水準が異なるため、リターンだけでどちらが優れているかは判断できません。