What if you invested a lump sum in the S&P 500 back in 1993?
A lump sum on SPY's first trading day held for 33 years compounds into a large multiple, but you had to pass through several deep drawdowns along the way.
Investment conditions
Asset · S&P 500 (SPY)
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 1993-01-29 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-55.2%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
0months
Months in loss: 0
Recovery period
37months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $229,092 (+2992.7%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -55.2%
Why this period and asset
SPY is the flagship U.S. ETF tracking the S&P 500, launched in early 1993. A lump sum on its first day held to today would have passed through the late-1990s dot-com bubble and its early-2000s collapse, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 pandemic crash, and the 2022 correction. Over this 33-year span, U.S. large caps fell hard several times and then went on to make new highs. It is a case of what multiples and drawdowns very long holding involves together.
Interpreting the result
Very long holding lets compounding work for decades and can build a large multiple, but the path was never smooth. This span held several large maximum drawdowns, including the dot-com collapse and 2008 when the index nearly halved, and each was followed by a stretch underwater and a recovery period to reclaim new highs. The recovery did ultimately continue, but it is a result you reach only if you can endure the deep drawdowns and long underwater stretches in between. Because the past looked this way does not mean the future will match it.
Caveats & limits
This is a simplified simulation assuming a specific timing of buying all at once on the first trading day, ignoring taxes, trading fees, and currency effects. You should note that even over 33 years there were several deep drawdown phases. As a dollar asset, the felt gain or loss shifts with the exchange rate, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-23
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: 調整後終値(配当・株式分割を反映)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
If I hold for 33 years, can I ignore drawdowns?
No. Even over this long span there were several maximum drawdowns where the index fell sharply, like the dot-com collapse and 2008, and each meant enduring a long stretch underwater.
Why calculate from 1993?
SPY's actual price data begins at its 1993 launch. Rather than substituting earlier index levels, we use the earliest point that can be computed from real data.
How does a lump sum differ from regular contributions?
A lump sum puts everything in early and carries the entry-timing risk all at once. Regular contributions spread purchases across many dates to average the cost, but they tend to lag in a rising market.
Related scenarios
📋 結果は過去のデータに基づくものです。過去のリターンは将来のリターンを保証しません。
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