The 2013 Taper Tantrum — the Ripple from a Single Phrase About 'Tightening the Money Tap'
The central bank didn't actually do anything — it merely said it "might reduce" going forward — yet the world market threw a fit. Why?
The Trigger — a Single Remark by Bernanke
After the 2008 crisis, the Fed had been injecting money into the market through quantitative easing (QE), buying bonds in large quantities. On May 22, 2013, then-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke first mentioned to Congress that the Fed "could gradually reduce (taper) asset purchases going forward."
At this single remark, the market showed a reaction close to a fit (tantrum), thinking "now liquidity will shrink." That is why it is called the "taper tantrum."
Surging Yields and the Emerging-Market Shock
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose quickly from around 1.6–2% in May 2013 to about 3% by September. When yields rise, existing bond prices fall, so bond investors took losses.
In particular, as money that had flowed into emerging markets chasing U.S. low rates flowed back out, emerging-market currencies depreciated about 6% against the dollar over the following months, and emerging-market stocks and bonds were shaken too.
The starting point of the 10-year yield is cited differently by source as about 1.6–2.0%. The common point is that it "surged to about 3% within a few months."
What We Learned
The taper tantrum shows that a "signal of a change in monetary-policy direction" itself can move the market greatly. "A change in expectations" is priced in before the actual policy.
After this event, central banks paid more attention to "forward guidance," announcing policy changes in advance and slowly. The lesson for investors is that in a phase where the direction of rates is changing, even bonds deemed safe can take losses.
よくある質問
Q. Aren't bonds safe assets? Why did they take losses?
Bonds tend to have lower volatility than stocks, but they are not risk-free. When market rates rise, the prices of already-issued bonds fall. In a phase of surging rates like the taper tantrum, bond investors too can take considerable valuation losses.
Q. Why were emerging markets shaken especially hard?
Because foreign money that had flocked to emerging markets chasing higher returns during the low-rate period flowed back to the U.S. once U.S. rates rose. Emerging markets with high dependence on foreign money like this react more sensitively to changes in global money flows.
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