What if you bought Exxon at the 2008 oil-price peak era?
This uses real data to show what would have happened if you had invested a lump sum of ₩10M in the world's largest oil company, Exxon Mobil (XOM), on June 23, 2008, as crude passed $140/barrel toward a record. The long stall after buying at a commodity-cycle high is the main story.
⚠️ Know the risk first
Right after entry, crude collapsed below $40 by year-end, and with the financial crisis layered on, Exxon's stock fell hard and then stalled for a long time. The burden of a cycle-top purchase shows in the metrics.
⚠️ This asset is an individual stock chosen as of today, so past returns can look better than they really were (survivorship bias).
What happened that day
In late June 2008, crude passed $140/barrel toward its July 11 record of about $147. Oil-beneficiary Exxon was near its peak too, but crude then collapsed below $40 by year-end, and its stock fell hard and stalled for a long time.
Why this date
This point, when crude passed $140/barrel toward a record, is used as the buy date, computing 'what if you bought the sector bellwether at the hottest point of a commodity cycle' at that day's close.
Investment conditions
Asset · Exxon Mobil (XOM) · lump-sum near the 2008 oil-boom high, then held long-term
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 2008-06-23 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Buy and final prices are shown in the asset's local currency (US & crypto $, Japan ¥, Korea ₩). Total invested and final value are in Korean won (₩).
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-62.4%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
30months
Months in loss: 50
Recovery period
15months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $22,025 (+197.3%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -62.4%
Why this period and asset
Late June 2008 was when crude oil passed $140/barrel and raced toward its July 11 record of about $147. Exxon Mobil, seen as a top beneficiary of the oil spike, was near its peak too. But crude then collapsed below $40/barrel by year-end, and with the financial crisis layered on, Exxon's stock also fell hard and then stalled for a long time without a clear rise.
Interpreting the result
The focus here is 'what happened after buying the sector bellwether at the hottest point of a commodity cycle.' Alongside the maximum drawdown, note that this oil-linked stock then stalled for a long time without a notable rise. It shows the intuition 'oil at a record means the oil company keeps rising' does not always hold. Because figures use dividend-reflecting adjusted close, dividend effects are included — yet even so, the burden of a cycle-top purchase shows plainly in the metrics.
Caveats & limits
As a commodity-cycle-top purchase, the later stall and drawdown are central. As a single stock, be mindful of survivorship bias — Exxon is a surviving mega-cap, but many energy firms that bet on oil then never recovered. Figures use adjusted close (dividends and splits reflected) and exclude exchange rates, fees, and taxes; always review the maximum drawdown and loss periods. Past results do not guarantee the future.
Event fact sources
- The National / Statesboro Herald — oil hits record ~$147 on 2008-07-11
- PIIE — The 2008 Oil Price "Bubble"
Requested date vs actual trading date
If the event date is a holiday, the fill uses the next trading day's close. The 'effective trading date' below is the date actually used.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-28
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- This asset is an individual stock chosen as of today, so past returns can look better than they really were (survivorship bias).
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Why use June 23, 2008 as the buy date?
Around then, crude passed $140/barrel toward its July record, and oil-beneficiary Exxon was near its peak too. It best captures 'what if you bought the sector bellwether at the hottest point of a commodity cycle.'
Oil was at a record — why did the stock stall for so long?
Right after, crude collapsed below $40/barrel by year-end, and the financial crisis piled on. Commodity prices and related stocks are cyclical, so buying at a top can bring a long stall or decline. It shows 'commodity at a record = related stock rises' does not always hold.
Are dividends reflected?
Yes. This calculation uses dividend-reflecting adjusted close, so dividend reinvestment is included. However, exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax. Even accounting for dividends, the burden of a cycle-top purchase shows in the metrics.
Does this mean I should buy Exxon?
No. This page only shows one stock's past path in data and recommends no stock. Commodity and energy stocks are highly cyclical, and judging by only the surviving bellwether can lead to survivorship bias.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.
⚠️ Calculated using today's representative assets, which may differ from the market composition at the time.