What if you bought Eli Lilly the day Mounjaro was approved?
Eli Lilly (LLY) is a top beneficiary of the GLP-1 obesity and diabetes drug boom. This uses real data to show what would have happened if you had invested a lump sum on May 13, 2022 — the day its diabetes drug Mounjaro received U.S. FDA approval — and held until now. As a single stock, be mindful of survivorship bias.
⚠️ Know the risk first
A drug approval does not guarantee a rising stock, and expectations may already be priced in at approval. There were drawdown stretches after entry too, so be sure to check the maximum drawdown.
⚠️ This asset is an individual stock chosen as of today, so past returns can look better than they really were (survivorship bias).
What happened that day
On May 13, 2022, the U.S. FDA approved Eli Lilly's tirzepatide diabetes drug 'Mounjaro.' It later expanded into obesity treatment and sat at the heart of the GLP-1 obesity/diabetes drug boom, riding which Lilly rose into a pharma leader.
Why this date
The buy date is the day the flagship drug of the obesity-drug boom was actually approved, computing 'what if you bought in time for the milestone of the drug's approval.'
Investment conditions
Asset · Eli Lilly (LLY) · lump-sum on the 2022 Mounjaro approval day, then held long-term
Method · Lump-sum (all at once)
Period · 2022-05-13 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $7,407
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Buy and final prices are shown in the asset's local currency (US & crypto $, Japan ¥, Korea ₩). Total invested and final value are in Korean won (₩).
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-34.5%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
0months
Months in loss: 0
Recovery period
3months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $7,407 → Final value $31,292 (+322.4%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -34.5%
Why this period and asset
May 13, 2022 is the day the U.S. FDA approved Eli Lilly's tirzepatide diabetes drug 'Mounjaro.' Mounjaro later expanded into obesity treatment (Zepbound) and sat at the heart of the GLP-1 obesity/diabetes drug boom, riding which Lilly's market cap surged into a pharma leader. Note that clinical results were already known by the approval date, so how much the approval was already priced into the stock must be checked with hindsight data.
Interpreting the result
If you bought on this approval day and held without selling, you can see the final value and return in the metrics below. As a top beneficiary of the obesity-drug boom, the result can be large, but that number reflects 'if you never sold,' and there were drawdown stretches (maximum drawdown) in between. Don't look only at the final return — review the loss stretches too. Investing gradually each month instead of all at once would have spread out the entry-timing risk.
Caveats & limits
Be mindful of survivorship bias. Lilly looks clearly like the top obesity-drug beneficiary in hindsight, but drug development carries large uncertainty from failure, side effects, and competition, and the outcome can't be known in advance. A drug approval does not guarantee a rising stock either. Figures use adjusted close and exclude exchange rates, fees, and taxes; always review the maximum drawdown and loss periods. Past results do not guarantee the future.
Event fact sources
- Eli Lilly / PR Newswire — FDA approves Lilly's Mounjaro (tirzepatide) injection (2022-05-13)
- Drugs.com — Mounjaro (tirzepatide) FDA Approval History (approved 2022-05-13)
Requested date vs actual trading date
If the event date is a holiday, the fill uses the next trading day's close. The 'effective trading date' below is the date actually used.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-28
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- This asset is an individual stock chosen as of today, so past returns can look better than they really were (survivorship bias).
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Why use May 13, 2022 as the buy date?
That is the day the U.S. FDA approved Eli Lilly's diabetes drug Mounjaro (tirzepatide). It best captures 'what if you bought the day the flagship drug of the obesity-drug boom was approved.'
Does a drug approval mean the stock rises?
No. An approval is an important milestone but does not guarantee a rising stock. Expectations may already be priced in at approval, and earnings, competition, and side-effect issues afterward move the stock. Check the actual result in the metrics below.
Were there loss periods along the way?
Yes. Lilly too had drawdown stretches after entry depending on market conditions. Check the maximum drawdown and loss-period metrics below. The final return only holds if you held through them without selling.
Are FX and taxes reflected?
No. Exchange rates, trading fees, and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax. This page only shows historical data and recommends no specific stock.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.
⚠️ Calculated using today's representative assets, which may differ from the market composition at the time.