What if you invested monthly in the US total market (VTI) for 15 years?
Starting in 2011, this total-market window is recovery-heavy -- beware the 'good-window illusion' of a shallow-looking drawdown.
Investment conditions
Asset · US Total Market (VTI)
Method · Recurring monthly investment
Period · 2011-07-01 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $222 / month
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-34.6%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
4months
Months in loss: 4
Recovery period
4months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $40,222 → Final value $131,493 (+226.9%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -34.6%
Why this period and asset
July 2011 came well after the 2008 crisis bottom of March 2009. The total market VTI tracks then passed through the long 2010s bull market, the late-2018 selloff, the 2020 COVID crash and rebound, the 2022 rate-hike period, and the AI rally. The deepest crisis bottom was already behind the start, so this window is relatively rich in recovery and bull phases.
Interpreting the result
Fifteen years shows the long-run compounding of total-market diversification, but honesty requires noting the start sits after a crisis bottom. This window still held the short, deep 2020 COVID maximum drawdown and the long 2022 loss and recovery period. If the declines look shallow, that may be a favorable-start sample effect, not index safety. The same VTI starting in 2006 (20 years) includes the financial crisis and shows a far larger drawdown.
Caveats & limits
A simplified calculation without taxes, fees, or currency effects. Being recovery-heavy, drawdowns may look smaller than reality, and the result depends heavily on the start year. As a dollar asset, returns in another currency depend on exchange rates.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-23
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Why does the drawdown look shallow?
Starting in 2011 is after the 2008 crisis bottom, so the worst decline is already behind you. The 2006-start 20-year scenario includes the crisis and shows a deeper drawdown.
Should I look at VTI over 15 or 20 years?
Viewing both is honest. The 20-year window includes the financial crisis while the 15-year is recovery-heavy, so drawdown and loss period differ greatly.
Does the total market include small caps too?
VTI tracks the total market including mid and small caps. But in a large-cap-led market, the gap versus a large-cap-focused index can be small.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.