S&P 500 vs gold: which wins over 15 years?

This page compares 15 years of steady monthly investing into an S&P 500 ETF (SPY) versus a gold ETF (GLD), using the comparison calculator. Beyond the final return, we place their maximum drawdowns and recovery periods side by side to show why it's hard to declare one simply 'better.'

Investment conditions

Asset · S&P 500 ETF (SPY) vs Gold ETF (GLD)

Method · Comparison

The key point is that you cannot judge which is 'better' from the final return alone. The two assets differ in volatility and the nature of their drawdowns. Stocks delivered larger long-term gains but suffered deep declines during crashes; gold rose more gradually but sometimes cushioned specific crisis periods. In the comparison calculator, look not only at each ending balance but also at each asset's maximum drawdown (how far it fell from its peak) and recovery period (how long it took to recover). The same return can involve a very different experience of decline and stress along the way. You can also consider holding both as a way to diversify.

Open in comparison calculator

Why this period and asset

Stocks and gold are very different in character. The S&P 500 is an index of 500 leading US companies, a 'growth asset' that has trended upward over time as corporate earnings grow. Gold, by contrast, is a physical asset that pays no interest or dividends and is often treated as a 'safe haven' store of value during inflation or financial stress. Over the past 15 years, the two diverged sharply by period. In the years after 2011, gold went through a long correction while US stocks rose strongly; in the early 2020 pandemic and the 2022 inflation phase, gold showed relative resilience at times. In other words, neither asset always won—leadership rotated depending on the environment.

Caveats & limits

This comparison reflects one specific past period; shifting the start or end date even slightly can change which asset leads. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In real investing, trading fees, taxes, and currency movements (returns on overseas assets depend on the exchange rate) all affect outcomes. This page does not recommend buying or selling any asset; it is educational material comparing the character of two assets to support your own judgment.

Data sources & limits

Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.

Frequently asked questions

Which is better, stocks or gold?

Neither is always better. Even within the past 15 years, leadership alternated by period. Stocks had greater long-term growth but deeper drawdowns; gold rose more gradually but showed defense in certain crises. Use the comparison calculator to weigh return against drawdown directly.

How do the risks differ?

Stocks are sensitive to corporate earnings and the economic cycle, so their volatility and maximum drawdown tend to be larger. Gold pays no interest or dividends and is driven by supply-demand, real rates, and the dollar. The type of risk differs, so review maximum drawdown and recovery period together.

What should I use as the basis for comparison?

Don't look at the final return alone. Also check maximum drawdown, time underwater, and recovery period. The same return can feel very different depending on how deep and how long the declines were along the way.

Related scenarios

📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.

📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.

⚠️ Volatility and risk levels differ by asset, so returns alone cannot determine which is better.