Recurring Japanese-Stock Investing Just Before the Japan Bubble
What if you had started investing about $220 per month at the historic peak of the Japanese market in late 1989?
What does this scenario show?
Investment period · Dec 1989 – Dec 2020 (31 years)
Investment method · Recurring investment of about $220 per month
Target asset · Japanese stock ETF (EWJ, tracking TOPIX)
The lost 30 years — an extreme case of buying at the peak (estimate)
Key results
Values verified by the operator against past data.
Sum of principal contributed during the investment period
Valuation at the end date
Personal return that reflects your investment timing
Risk & recovery metrics
These are the declines you actually had to endure during long-term investing. We do not hide this part.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-65.2%
Largest decline from the peak
Longest loss duration
180 months
Longest continuous stretch below principal
Recovery period
Not yet recovered
Time to regain the previous peak
What if you had stopped partway?
The collapse of the Japanese bubble is a leading example showing that even long-term investing can result in a loss. Even after 31 years of recurring investing, the value stayed below the principal. Not all assets trend upward over the long run. Figures are estimates.
If you stop investing during a decline, you lose both the chance to lower your average purchase price and the gains from the subsequent rebound. That said, there is no guarantee this result repeats for every asset and every period.
Data sources and limitations
- Based on adjusted close (EWJ ETF basis, FX effect not reflected). EWJ was listed in 1996; the earlier period is a hypothetical simulation based on Japan's TOPIX. Figures are estimates.
- Based on adjusted close (dividends and splits reflected); unless otherwise noted, the exchange rate (FX effect) is not reflected.
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected. Your actual after-tax return is lower than this.
- This is a result based on past data and does not guarantee future returns.
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.