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Worst-case startRecurring

Recurring Japanese-Stock Investing Just Before the Japan Bubble

What if you had started investing about $220 per month at the historic peak of the Japanese market in late 1989?

#Japan#bubble#lost 30 years#worst start#recurring

What does this scenario show?

Investment period · Dec 1989 – Dec 2020 (31 years)

Investment method · Recurring investment of about $220 per month

Target asset · Japanese stock ETF (EWJ, tracking TOPIX)

The lost 30 years — an extreme case of buying at the peak (estimate)

Key results

Values verified by the operator against past data.

Total invested

Sum of principal contributed during the investment period

$83k
Ending value

Valuation at the end date

$73k
Cumulative return
-12%
Annualized return (XIRR)

Personal return that reflects your investment timing

-0.4% / yr (estimate)

Risk & recovery metrics

These are the declines you actually had to endure during long-term investing. We do not hide this part.

Maximum drawdown (MDD)

-65.2%

Largest decline from the peak

Longest loss duration

180 months

Longest continuous stretch below principal

Recovery period

Not yet recovered

Time to regain the previous peak

What if you had stopped partway?

The collapse of the Japanese bubble is a leading example showing that even long-term investing can result in a loss. Even after 31 years of recurring investing, the value stayed below the principal. Not all assets trend upward over the long run. Figures are estimates.

If you stop investing during a decline, you lose both the chance to lower your average purchase price and the gains from the subsequent rebound. That said, there is no guarantee this result repeats for every asset and every period.

Data sources and limitations

  • Based on adjusted close (EWJ ETF basis, FX effect not reflected). EWJ was listed in 1996; the earlier period is a hypothetical simulation based on Japan's TOPIX. Figures are estimates.
  • Based on adjusted close (dividends and splits reflected); unless otherwise noted, the exchange rate (FX effect) is not reflected.
  • Trading fees and taxes are not reflected. Your actual after-tax return is lower than this.
  • This is a result based on past data and does not guarantee future returns.

📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.

📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.